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2026 Truist Championship predictions: Golf picks and best bets at Quail Hollow
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Reviewed by Nick Slade
The 2026 PGA TOUR heads to Charlotte, NC for the Truist Championship, the second of back-to-back Signature Events, and we break down the best value from the Dimers model.
The PGA TOUR heads to its second of back-to-back signature events, and Dimers' golf predictions and best golf bets are back in action for the Truist Championship, teeing off on Thursday, May 7, through Sunday, May 10 at Quail Hollow in Charlotte, NC.
Thanks to our weekly golf predictions, we've identified Cameron Young to win THE PLAYERS, Matt Fitzpatrick to win the Valspar Championship, and cashing our reduced odds H2H parlay at the Masters as some of this year's standout victories.
This week's tournament caps off a run of two Signature Events leading into the PGA Championship, which makes a great time to utilize the full offering of Dimers Pro golf tools, available now with a 3-day free trial.
2026 Truist Championship preview
- Date: May 7-10, 2026
- Location: Charlotte, NC
- Course: Quail Hollow Club
- Par: 71 / 7,583 yards
- Purse: $20,000,000
The PGA Tour's Signature Event series rolls into Charlotte, North Carolina this week for the 2026 Truist Championship at Quail Hollow Club, one of the most demanding and beloved venues on TOUR. The course stretches to the third-longest layout on the schedule and a top 10 difficulty in terms of scoring average.
Narrow, tree-lined fairways, deep bunkers, heavily contoured green complexes, and water hazards in play on nearly half of the holes combine to create a strategic test that rewards iron-play precision as much as off-the-tee power. Most scoring opportunities are confined to the par 5s and a pair of the par 4s, with the other holes typically playing over par for the field.
Quail Hollow's infamous finishing stretch, the "Green Mile," boasts a par 4/3/4 gauntlet of Holes 16-18 that has consistently ranked as the three most difficult holes on the course. Surviving the Green Mile with a lead will be a major factor in who lifts the trophy. Weather will also be a factor early in the week, with thundery showers and moderate breezes expected Thursday before calmer conditions return for the weekend.
The 72-player field features nearly every elite name in the game, with the notable exceptions of world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, Russell Henley, and Shane Lowry. Headlining the field is Rory McIlroy, making his first start since completing back-to-back Masters victories and returning to a course where he has won four previous PGA Tour titles.
Also drawing significant attention is Cameron Young, who enters on an extraordinary run of form that includes a PLAYERS Championship win, a Cadillac Championship victory, a T3 at both the API and the Masters, and a T7 at Genesis across his last six starts.
In this loaded field, expect the week's champion to be someone who can overpower Quail Hollow off the tee while threading the needle on approach shots, undaunted by the closing stretch.
Now let's get to the value!
Who will win the 2026 Truist Championship?
Our win predictions are the result of simulating the tournament over 10,000 times via our AI models, as well as each golfer's odds to finish Top 5, 10 and 20:
| Golfer | Win% | Top 5% | Top 10% | Top 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Rory McIlroy | 10.3% | 31.7% | 49.08% | 68.9% |
| 2. Cameron Young | 8.6% | 30.5% | 47.7% | 67.7% |
| 3. Matt Fitzpatrick | 6.8% | 25.7% | 40.8% | 62.5% |
| 4. Xander Schauffele | 5.8% | 22.3% | 38.0% | 60.0% |
| 5. Ludvig Aberg | 5.0% | 20.7% | 34.7% | 56.1% |
For each tournament, we look at the golfers our model has identified with a higher probability to win than what is implied by the sportsbook odds.
We'll also highlight any standout prop and placement bets for other golfers if we find any appealing value hidden in the Dimers golf predictions.
To get the most out of this week's PGA TOUR event, check out Dimers' full tournament predictions and compare with course history and other analytics to find an edge.
Dimers' top pick: Matt Fitzpatrick to win (+1700 on DraftKings)
Win probability: 6.8%
Dimers' fair odds: +1370 and above
Matt Fitzpatrick represents the sharpest value among the top tier this week.
At 6.8% win probability against +1700 odds, there is a meaningful edge here according to the Dimers model, which would make him fair at +1370.
The Englishman is in the best form of his life, three wins in 2026, all three victories in his last five starts.
He also has a proven track record at Quail Hollow, finishing T8 at last year's PGA Championship here.
His meticulous ball-striking and elite iron play are tailor-made for a course that demands strokes gained on approach above all else, and at these odds with a Top 5 win probability, he's the model's top-rated play.
Truist Championship best bets and longshot picks
Tommy Fleetwood to win (+2400 on DraftKings)
Win probability: 4.0%
Dimers' fair odds: +2400 and above
Tommy Fleetwood is precisely at fair value, making him a solid look at his current form.
The Englishman has a well-documented affinity for demanding layouts. Quail Hollow fits that profile perfectly, and he owns a T4, T5 and two additional top-15 finishes across four consecutive editions of this event.
He ranks 18th in total strokes gained, 32nd off the tee and great at avoiding bogeys. Just needs to level out his scoring in Rounds 1 and 3 to put together a complete tournament.
With four top-10 finishes already this season, Fleetwood arrives in strong form and checks nearly every box the course demands: disciplined ball-striking, strong iron play, and the composure to survive the Green Mile.
Akshay Bhatia to win (+6600 on DraftKings)
Win probability: 2.6%
Dimers' fair odds: +3750 and above
The odds here are generous relative to our fair value of +3750, giving Akshay Bhatia strong mid-tier appeal.
The 24-year-old lefty has already won a Signature Event this season, coming from behind at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
What makes him compelling is his elite all-around profile: he ranks 7th in the FedExCup standings, 9th in total strokes gained, 2nd in birdie average, 15th on approach and 3rd in putting.
He's just not good off the tee, ranking below average in nearly every metric, which could be a lot to overcome at a course where scoring comes at a premium.
However, he's a big edge and worth a look in placement markets as well.
Truist Championship longshot bets
Beyond the Dimers model favorites, several golfers have an outright edge at odds of more than 60/1, setting up longshot bets for winners or Top 20 placements at good plus-money value.
Both of these golfers are around 1% or even lower to win, but are worth a look based on value alone.
Sahith Theegala to win (+9600 on DraftKings)
Win probability: 1.2%
Dimers' fair odds: +8230 and above
Theegala's Truist Championship history is underwhelming, a withdrawal and two finishes outside the top 50, but his 2026 season as a whole tells a much more encouraging story.
He has posted four top-10s and, outside of one missed cut, has finished worse than T31 once all year. His profile leans accuracy over distance, which is typically a concern at Quail Hollow, though the course's field-wide numbers at hitting fairways somewhat neutralize that gap.
He's a strong scorer, particularly on difficult par 4s, exactly what the Green Mile demands, and ranks inside the Top 40 in Approach, Putting, Scrambling and Total Strokes Gained.
Another compelling argument here is the placement odds: he plummets to just +198 for a Top 20 finish, well shy of his fair price at 28.4% for one.
Andrew Putnam to win (+34000 on DraftKings)
Win probability: 0.7%
Dimers' fair odds: +14185 and above
Andrew Putnam is the definition of a lottery-ticket longshot, but the value is undeniable at huge odds +34000 against a model fair price of +14185, more than double the fair number and a big advantage over his shortest odds of +17500, which would already be an edge.
His Quail Hollow record is modest (T29 in 2024, two cuts made in four appearances), and he doesn't fit the power-first profile the course typically rewards.
That said, he quietly carries a complementary skill set that keeps him relevant: 30th on approach, 7th in around-the-green scrambling, and a solid, above-average putter.
He was in contention for a top-5 finish before settling for a T18 just last week, and has a T2 and T5 this year. For a small-unit sprinkle on a big number, Putnam checks the value box, as well as gets an edge in each placement market from Top 20 through Top 5.
Dimers' golf resources for 2026 PGA TOUR
As well as being your best source for PGA golf predictions, Dimers Pros also have access to the latest golf news, golf predictions for every game, weekly golf rankings, and golf matchup H2H tool.
- PGA Predictions: Our data-backed predictions for every tournament, including every major.
- Head-to-Head Predictor: Simulate any H2H tournament matchup between golfers
- Dimers' PGA Rankings: Our in-house approach to ranking the World's best golfers
- PGA Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the PGA TOUR
The Dimers Pro golf predictions ended last season on an elite run, headlined by Tommy Fleetwood's first win at the TOUR Championship.
This season, we've accurately identified the live value on Justin Rose to win the Farmers Insurance Open at +500 and big edges on Tommy Fleetwood at Pebble Beach and our boosted pick of Cameron Young to win THE PLAYERS as standout winners of the year.
Dimers and responsible gambling
Please remember to enjoy gambling responsibly. Responsible gambling means setting limits, staying in control, and understanding that luck is just part of the game. Make informed choices, set a budget, and know when to take a break. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.
To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Nick Slade through our fact-checking process.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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