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2026 PGA Championship predictions: Golf picks and best bets for next major at Aronimink Golf Club
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Reviewed by Nick Slade
It's time for the second golf major of the year at the PGA Championship, and we break down the best bets from the Dimers model as Scottie Scheffler looks to defend his title.
The PGA TOUR moves to the second major of the year, the PGA Championship, teeing off at Aronimink Golf Club from May 14 through May 17 and as always, we're diving into the Dimers golf betting predictions to find the best golfers worth betting on to hoist the Wanamaker Trophy this weekend.
Thanks to our weekly golf predictions, we've identified Cameron Young to win THE PLAYERS, Matt Fitzpatrick to win the Valspar Championship, and cashing our reduced odds H2H parlay at the Masters as some of this year's standout victories.
To take full advantage of all of our golf betting insights ahead of the second major of the year, claim your 3-day free trial of Dimers Pro and get unlimited access to our golf features and more for 72 hours.
Learn more below!
2026 PGA Championship preview
- Date: May 14-17, 2026
- Location: Newton Square, PA
- Course: Aronimink Golf Club
- Par: 70 / 7,394 yards
The 108th PGA Championship tees off Thursday at Aronimink Golf Club in Newtown Square, Pennsylvania, the first major championship to be contested at the club since the 1972 PGA Championship.
The layout plays as a par 70 stretching to 7,394 yards with just two par 5s, which figures to limit the edge that elite power players typically enjoy at the major.
The course underwent an extensive restoration prior to the 2018 BMW Championship, introducing a swath of bunkers, brining the current total to 180. Many of these bunkers lay in driving zones, with rough as think as 3 inches high, so golfers will be encouraged to go for less than driver regularly. Greens average over 8,000 square feet, among the largest all year, placing a premium on approach play and putting, with a lean on the golfers who excel in bogey avoidance.
For those looking to make the weekend, the PGA Championship's cut will see the top 65 and ties advance after 36 holes
On the storyline front, Scottie Scheffler enters as defending champion, while Rory McIlroy arrives looking for his second major win of the year. Jordan Spieth will make his 10th attempt at completing the career Grand Slam, a pursuit that has defined much of his major championship narrative in recent years. Rory pulled it off last year, could it now be Spieth's turn?
Cameron Young enters in perhaps the strongest form in the field with two wins in his last five starts, including THE PLAYERS, along with a T3 at the Masters. And of course, the LIV (formerly LIV?) crew is back in town with Jon Rahm, Bryson DeChambeau, and Patrick Reed among the top contenders by the Dimers model.
Now, let's dig into the value!
Who will win the 2026 PGA Championship?
Our win predictions are the result of simulating the tournament over 10,000 times via our AI models, as well as each golfer's odds to finish Top 5, 10 and 20:
| Golfer | Win% | Top 5% | Top 10% | Top 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Scottie Scheffler | 17.9% | 44.9% | 59.7% | 74.7% |
| 2. Rory McIlroy | 6.1% | 23.7% | 37.5% | 55.6% |
| 3. Cameron Young | 5.7% | 22.7% | 36.8% | 55.3% |
| 4. Jon Rahm | 4.5% | 18.5% | 30.9% | 48.9% |
| 5. Ludvig Aberg | 3.5% | 16.3% | 27.8% | 44.7% |
For each tournament, we look at the golfers our model has identified with a higher probability to win than what is implied by the sportsbook odds.
We'll also highlight any standout prop and placement bets for other golfers if we find any appealing value hidden in the Dimers golf predictions.
To get the most out of this week's PGA TOUR event, check out Dimers' full tournament predictions and compare with course history and other analytics to find an edge.
Dimers' top pick: Scottie Scheffler to win (+525 on bet365)
Win probability: 17.9%
Dimers' fair odds: +460 and above
The case for Scottie Scheffler starts and ends with him being the best golfer in the world by most measurable standards, followed up by some strong Dimers value at a 17.9% probability.
He leads the TOUR in strokes gained: total and scoring average, is the defending champion and has also finished T8, and T2 in his three most recent PGA Championship starts.
His elite SG ranks across nearly every category at 5th off the tee, 14th in putting, and 2nd around the green, align well with the demands at Aronimink.
Form is rarely an issue for Scottie, but he's turned in three consecutive runner-up finishes heading into the week: a loss by one at the Masters, a playoff defeat at RBC Heritage, and a six-shot deficit to Cameron Young at the Cadillac Championship.
Everything lines up for a dominant Scheffler week as he looks for his first win since opening the season.
PGA Championship best bets
Tommy Fleetwood to win (boosted from +2900 to +3300 at bet365)
Win probability: 3.4%
Dimers' fair odds: +2840 and above
Tommy Fleetwood arrives with five top-10 finishes in 2026, including a T5 last week at the Truist Championship, his second of the year.
He ranks 30th on TOUR off the tee and dominates around the greens, giving him the ball-striking foundation to compete at Aronimink, where approach play and short-game precision come at a premium.
The concern is the flat stick as he ranks 97th in SG: Putting , and on bentgrass greens averaging 8,200 square feet, that deficit could prove costly.
His PGA Championship results have also trended in the wrong direction, a T5 at the 2022 PGA Championship has given way to finishes of T18, T26, and T41 in the three since.
The talent is clearly present, and the form entering this week is as good as he's shown at any major in years, but the putter remains the question he hasn't yet answered.
However, those looking to back the Brit will get just better than fair odds at a 3.4% win probability, thanks to our boosted play at bet365.
Our boosted odds on Tommy Fleetwood at bet365 sportsbook.
Tyrrell Hatton to win (+6000 on bet365)
Win probability: 2.8%
Dimers' fair odds: +3470 and above
Tyrrell Hatton has quietly become one of the most reliable major championship performers in the field.
Since the 2022 Masters, he has contended at 16 of 17 majors, logging seven top-15 finishes in that span, a hit rate that few players in the world can match.
Most recently, he posted a T4 at the 2025 U.S. Open and a T3 at the 2026 Masters, so he enters this year's PGA Championship with great major form.
He's effectively our best bet based on value, as a 2.8% probability puts his fair odds at +3470, well off his price of 60/1 on bet365.
With an edge in Top 20, Top 10 and Top 5 markets, as well, look no further than Hatton for our top ladder play of the week.
Russell Henley to win (+6000 on bet365)
Win probability: 2.8%
Dimers' fair odds: +3470 and above
Russell Henley has assembled a quietly strong 2026 season, with three top-10 finishes, including a T3, with all results outside of two missed cuts and a stumble at the Cadillac Championship sitting at T25 or better.
His PGA Championship history is modest at best, with a personal best finish of T23 in 2024 among two cuts, a T61 and T70, but the course profile at Aronimink suits his skill set well and he draws a solid Dimers edge.
He ranks third on TOUR in bogey avoidance, which is arguably the single most important statistical trait at a layout with 180 bunkers and rough sitting at three inches or more. Add in his above-average strokes gained around the green and a strong putter, and Henley checks several of the boxes that should correlate with success this week.
He's a mid to long hot, but one with a well-rounded game that fits the test and like Hatton, also draws multiple placement edges as well.
PGA Championship longshot pick
Beyond the Dimers model favorites, several golfers have an outright edge at odds of more than 60/1, setting up longshot bets for winners or Top 20 placements at good plus-money value.
We'll break down our top value of these longshots, but more can be found by digging into our full tournament predictions.
JJ Spaun to win (+9400)
Win probability: 1.8%
Dimers' fair odds: +5455 and above
JJ Spaun comes in off the best stretch of the season posting T25, T14, and T5 finishes in three consecutive starts, improving each week, and backed by a victory at the Valero Texas Open last month.
He also showed last year at the PGA Championship that he can compete in the event, improving on two prior missed cuts with a T37, and followed that with a win at the U.S. Open and a T23 at The Open Championship, making all four major cuts and demonstrating he can win on a demanding layout that rewards precision and penalizes mistakes.
His game is built on approach play (9th on Tour in strokes gained: approach) and sound tee-to-green skills, which aligns well with what Aronimink rewards. However, he's nearly 100/1 or a reason, and his putter is a real liability.
He ranks well below average at 145th in the field, but in a week where the greens are enormous and approach play is perhaps the most critical skill, his iron game could keep him in contention long enough to splash at a major once again.
Dimers' golf resources for 2026 PGA TOUR
As well as being your best source for PGA golf predictions, Dimers Pros also have access to the latest golf news, golf predictions for every game, weekly golf rankings, and golf matchup H2H tool.
- PGA Predictions: Our data-backed predictions for every tournament, including every major.
- Head-to-Head Predictor: Simulate any H2H tournament matchup between golfers
- Dimers' PGA Rankings: Our in-house approach to ranking the World's best golfers
- PGA Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the PGA TOUR
The Dimers Pro golf predictions ended last season on an elite run, headlined by Tommy Fleetwood's first win at the TOUR Championship.
This season, we've accurately identified the live value on Justin Rose to win the Farmers Insurance Open at +500 and big edges on Tommy Fleetwood at Pebble Beach and our boosted pick of Cameron Young to win THE PLAYERS as standout winners of the year.
Dimers and responsible gambling
Please remember to enjoy gambling responsibly. Responsible gambling means setting limits, staying in control, and understanding that luck is just part of the game. Make informed choices, set a budget, and know when to take a break. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.
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New here? See everything Pro includes To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Nick Slade through our fact-checking process.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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