2026 John Deere Classic predictions: Ben Griffin leads picks and best bets at TPC Deere Run
The PGA TOUR heads to Silvis, IL for the John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run and we're back with the best Dimers model bets for the tournament.
The PGA TOUR rolls into Silvis, IL for the John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run, and as always, we're back with the Dimers golf betting predictions to find the best golfers worth betting on to win this weekend's tournament.
Thanks to our weekly golf predictions, we've identified Cameron Young to win THE PLAYERS, Matt Fitzpatrick to win the Valspar Championship, and cashing our reduced odds H2H parlay at the Masters as some of this year's standout victories.
Last week, we identified Eric Cole as a misprice at +10500, and while he didn't go on to win, he finished as big first-round leader longshot.
To take full advantage of all of our golf betting insights before this weekend's event, get 50% off your first week or month of Dimers Pro with promo code USA this Fourth of July weekend!
2026 John Deere Classic preview
- Date: July 2 - July 5, 2026
- Location: Silvis, IL
- Course: TPC Deere Run
- Par: 71 / 7,327 yards
TPC Deere Run has welcomed the PGA TOUR since 2000, and the Silvis, Illinois layout remains one of the more birdie-friendly tests each year.
Despite sitting outside signature-event status and without stars like Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy in the field, the John Deere Classic carries significant weight this week, arriving just six weeks before the season's first playoff event.
Scoring at Deere Run tends to hinge on two skills in particular: driving accuracy and long-distance putting. The fairways are notably thin on several holes, and missing them is costly given how tree-lined the course is, while other holes open up considerably and reward length with far less penalty for stray drives. With large, accessible greens producing plenty of greens-in-regulation opportunities, the players who putt best from distance should separate themselves as the week progresses.
Conditions will also be part of the story this week, with an Extreme Heat Warning in effect for Silvis. That kind of heat could test stamina over four rounds and add an extra variable to a course already known for rewarding aggressive, confident play.
Who will win the 2026 John Deere Classic?
Our win predictions are the result of simulating the tournament over 10,000 times via our AI models, as well as each golfer's odds to finish Top 5, 10 and 20:
| Golfer | Win% | Top 5% | Top 10% | Top 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Ben Griffin | 8.3% | 25.3% | 38.0% | 54.8% |
| 2. Chris Gotterup | 6.2% | 22.2% | 34.7% | 50.4% |
| 3. Keith Mitchell | 4.4% | 16.5% | 28.0% | 44.0% |
| 4. Keegan Bradley | 4.3% | 17.4% | 29.6% | 45.2% |
| 5. Eric Cole | 3.7% | 14.2% | 24.1% | 38.9% |
For each tournament, we look at the golfers our model has identified with a higher probability to win than what is implied by the sportsbook odds.
To get the most out of this week's PGA TOUR event, check out Dimers' full tournament predictions and compare with course history and other analytics to find an edge.
John Deere Classic Championship best bets, sleepers and longshot picks
Dimers' best value: Ben Griffin to win (+1700 on bet365)
Win probability: 8.3%
Dimers' fair odds: +1105
Griffin is this week's headline play, and his recent form supports it alongside the data
He finished T5 in his Deere Run debut back in 2024, then rode a hot streak that included two wins into last year's start, only to miss the cut, a reminder that this Silvis shootout can humble anyone.
After no such finishes in his first 11 starts this year, he's turned in four Top 10s, including a pair of Top 5s.
His approach play is the real driver here as he's gained strokes on approach in four consecutive events, peaking last week at the Travelers.
TPC River Highlands and Deere Run share similar approach distances so that form should translate well.
Griffin isn't an elite ball-striker off the tee, but his accuracy supersedes his raw power, and his putting (25th on TOUR) gives him a complete game suited to this birdie-fest.
Eric Cole to win (+3200 on bet365)
Win probability: 3.7%
Dimers' fair odds: +2600
Cole has quietly built one of the more underrated résumés on tour, with four top-10s in his last seven starts, contending this past week.
He's shown he can win the driving battle even when it's not his strength, taking the first-round lead and staying in contention through 54 holes in a recent event despite some off-the-tee shortcomings.
His real weapon is the putter as he's among the better flatstick performers on tour, which should play well on TPC Deere Run's large, makeable greens.
A solid outside contender with a track record of sticking around on leaderboards, Cole is a good bet in a less competitive field.
Denny McCarthy to win (+6200 on DraftKings)
Win probability: 1.8%
Dimers' fair odds: +5460
McCarthy is fresh off his first top-25 in a Signature Event with a T14 finish at the Travelers, suggesting his game may be rounding into form.
TPC Deere Run has historically been his happy hunting ground with T6, T6, T6 and T11 finishes dating back to 2022.
His inconsistent season has largely traced back to sporadic putter struggles, but overall has ranked well.
With some books pricing him as short as +4000, there's a notable gap between market price and Dimers' fair odds, making him one of the week's bigger value discrepancies.
Matt Kuchar to win (+16500 on bet365)
Win probability: 1.1%
Dimers' fair odds: +8990
The definition of a longshot value play, Matt Kuchar has missed the cut in 6 of his 11 starts this year, so the floor risk is real.
But his three best finishes of the season have all come in his last four starts, T22, T22 and T24, potentially indicating the veteran is fine-tuning his game at the right time.
The gap between his market odds and Dimers' fair-value number points to a significant mispricing, with nearly double his already long +8990 fair odds available at 165/1 on bet365.
For bettors looking at placement markets rather than an outright win, Kuchar's top-20 odds (+425, 22.2% implied probability) offer a more practical way to back his recent uptick in form, as well as backing him for a good start in Round 1.
Dimers' golf resources for 2026 PGA TOUR
As well as being your best source for PGA golf predictions, Dimers Pros also have access to the latest golf news, golf predictions for every game, weekly golf rankings, and golf matchup H2H tool.
- PGA Predictions: Our data-backed predictions for every tournament, including every major.
- Head-to-Head Predictor: Simulate any H2H tournament matchup between golfers
- Dimers' PGA Rankings: Our in-house approach to ranking the World's best golfers
- PGA Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the PGA TOUR
The Dimers Pro golf predictions ended last season on an elite run, headlined by Tommy Fleetwood's first win at the TOUR Championship.
This season, we've accurately identified the live value on Justin Rose to win the Farmers Insurance Open at +500 and big edges on Tommy Fleetwood at Pebble Beach and our boosted pick of Cameron Young to win THE PLAYERS as standout winners of the year.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
