Jun 30, 2026
As France, Norway and Mexico take the field, Polymarket and Kalshi promo code "DIMERS" extends $50 + $10 bonuses into Tuesday's World Cup matches
Read Article As England, Belgium and the USMNT enter Round of 32 action, Polymarket and Kalshi promo code "DIMERS" extends $50 + $10 bonuses into the World Cup
Updated: | First published:
Written by Sina Torki, Sports Writer
Reviewed by Nick Slade
The Round of 32 brings three contests with very different competitive profiles, and both Polymarket and Kalshi have full prop suites live on each one. England face DR Congo on Wednesday July 1 at 12:00 PM EDT, Belgium take on Senegal at 4:00 PM EDT, and the USMNT meet Bosnia and Herzegovina at 8:00 PM EDT. All three favorites are priced well above 70% to advance — but the margin-of-victory props reveal meaningfully different stories underneath each headline number. Traders on both platforms can access sign-up bonuses using promo code DIMERS: deposit $20 on Polymarket and receive $50 in trading funds, or trade $10 on Kalshi and receive a $10 bonus.
England vs DR Congo — July 1, 12:00 PM EDT
England are the most heavily favored side across all three matches today. Kalshi prices England to advance at 88%, with DR Congo at just 12%. Polymarket's three-way regulation time market has England at 77%, a draw at 18%, and DR Congo at 7%, with the team-to-advance market going further still to England 89¢. Both platforms are essentially in agreement that this is a formality for England — the interesting question is the margin.
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| England advances | 77% (reg time) / 89% (advance) | 88% |
| Draw (reg time) | 18% | — |
| DR Congo advances | 7% (reg time) / 12% (advance) | 12% |
| England -1.5 spread | — | 51% |
| Over 2.5 goals | — | 50% |
| England over 1.5 goals | — | 65% |
| DR Congo over 0.5 goals | — | 40% |
The England -1.5 spread sitting at 51% on Kalshi is the standout number — despite England being 88% to advance, a multi-goal margin is barely a coin flip. Combined with England over 1.5 goals at 65% and DR Congo over 0.5 at only 40%, the consensus picture is a comfortable England win that's more likely to be a clean two-goal margin with a Congo clean sheet conceded than a blowout.
Belgium vs Senegal — July 1, 4:00 PM EDT
The closest match of the day. Polymarket's regulation time market has Belgium at just 44%, a draw at 30%, and Senegal at 27% — the highest draw probability of any match in this set. Kalshi's advances market shows Belgium at 60% and Senegal at 40%, with much of Belgium's edge coming from extra time and penalties rather than a clear regulation time advantage.
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Belgium advances | 44% (reg time) / 61% (advance) | 60% |
| Draw (reg time) | 30% | — |
| Senegal advances | 27% (reg time) / 40% (advance) | 40% |
| Belgium -1.5 spread | — | 22% |
| Over 2.5 goals | — | 45% |
| Belgium over 1.5 goals | — | 42% |
| Senegal over 0.5 goals | — | 67% |
Belgium vs Senegal is producing the sharpest prop signal of the day. Senegal over 0.5 goals at 67% on Kalshi, paired with the Belgium -1.5 spread at just 22%, makes clear that even in scenarios where Belgium advance, a comfortable regulation time win is a distinctly minority outcome. A tight, low-scoring match decided narrowly or going to extra time is the more coherent read of this market than a routine Belgian victory.
USA vs Bosnia and Herzegovina — July 1, 8:00 PM EDT
The USMNT enter as comfortable favorites in front of a home crowd. Polymarket's regulation time market has the USA at 72%, a draw at 19%, and Bosnia at 10%, with the team-to-advance market pricing USA at 83¢. Kalshi has USA advances at 83% and Bosnia at 17% — both platforms aligned closely on the overall outcome.
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| USA advances | 72% (reg time) / 83% (advance) | 83% |
| Draw (reg time) | 19% | — |
| Bosnia advances | 10% (reg time) / 18% (advance) | 17% |
| USA -1.5 spread | — | 47% |
| Over 2.5 goals | — | 53% |
| USA over 1.5 goals | — | 64% |
| Bosnia over 0.5 goals | — | 50% |
This is the most balanced spread market of the three games relative to the moneyline. The USA -1.5 at 47% on Kalshi — nearly a coin flip — combined with USA over 1.5 goals at 64% and Bosnia over 0.5 at an even 50%, suggests traders expect the USMNT to score freely while still conceding roughly half the time. A 2-1 American win is arguably the single most internally consistent scoreline across these numbers. For broader World Cup coverage, the Dimers prediction market insights hub is updated after every match. For a primer on how prediction markets process live sporting events, the Dimers guide covers the mechanics in detail.
Promo Code DIMERS: Active on Polymarket and Kalshi for All Three Matches
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Promo code | DIMERS | DIMERS |
| New user bonus | Deposit $20, Get $50 | Trade $10, Get $10 |
| England vs DR Congo | Trade on Polymarket | Trade on Kalshi |
| Belgium vs Senegal | Trade on Polymarket | Trade on Kalshi |
| USA vs Bosnia and Herzegovina | Trade on Polymarket | Trade on Kalshi |
Enter DIMERS at registration on either platform. The code cannot be applied to an existing account. The Polymarket promo code DIMERS has been verified through June 2026 and unlocks $50 in trading funds when you sign up and deposit $20. Full details on the Polymarket offer are available on the Dimers Polymarket promo code page. To trade any of today's matches on Kalshi with promo code DIMERS, sign up here.
Polymarket is a prediction market platform, not a sportsbook. Users trade positions on event outcomes using real funds. Must be 18+ and eligible under applicable law. Trading involves risk. Bonus subject to Polymarket's current terms and conditions. Offer valid for new accounts only.
Kalshi: Must be 18 years or older and have a legal, U.S. residential address within the applicable state, D.C., or U.S. territories. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NJ, and OH.
To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Nick Slade through our fact-checking process.
Sina brings a unique blend of digital expertise and sports acumen to his writing. He leverages deep research and his own on-field experience to deliver accurate, actionable insights to readers and sports bettors alike.
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