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Arnold Palmer Invitational predictions: Golf picks and best bets
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Reviewed by Nick Slade
3. Rory McIlroy - McIlroy arrived in 2026 as the reigning Masters champion after completing the career Grand Slam. Making his third PGA Tour start of the season, he has strung together five consecutive rounds in the 60s, including a runner-up finish at Riviera and comes to Bay Hill, a venue where he has been consistently strong, with his game trending upward.
4. Russell Henley - At 36, Henley is playing some of the best golf of his career, having won last year's Arnold Palmer Invitational for his fifth PGA Tour title while finishing in the top 15 in strokes gained in several key categories. He enters this week having missed the cut at the Genesis Invitational and on a run of five straight finishes outside Orlando, setting him up for a bounce back.
5. Xander Schauffele - A rib injury derailed Schauffele's 2025 campaign, representing a significant step down from his brilliant 2024, though he still made the cut in all four majors and recorded at least two top-10 finishes among them. No longer dealing with that injury, he improved in each of his four West Coast starts this year (MC-T41-T19-T7) and arrives at Bay Hill with genuine momentum, looking for his first top-20 result at the venue.
| Golfer | Win% | Top 5% | Top 10% | Top 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Scottie Scheffler | 25.0% | 55.4% | 70.7% | 84.9% |
| 2. Tommy Fleetwood | 9.6% | 33.8% | 50.5% | 70.0% |
| 3. Rory McIlroy | 6.7% | 26.5% | 42.8% | 63.8% |
| 4. Russell Henley | 3.0% | 13.5% | 26.3% | 47.3% |
| 5. Xander Schauffele | 2.8% | 15.2% | 27.7% | 49.0% |
MORE: Dimers' in-house golf rankings
Who will win the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational?
For each tournament, we look at the golfers our model has identified with a higher probability to win than what is implied by the sportsbook odds.
We'll also highlight any standout prop and placement bets for other golfers if we find any appealing value hidden in the Dimers golf predictions.
Scottie Scheffler to win (+350 on FanDuel)
Win probability: 25.0%
Dimers' fair odds: +300 and above
Scheffler enters Bay Hill as the clear betting favorite, and for good reason; he's a two-time champion here, including a dominant five-shot victory in 2024, and the oddsmakers have installed him at +350 despite his fair value sitting closer to +300, meaning he's actually slightly overpriced relative to his 25% win probability.
The one wrinkle worth monitoring is his first-round form: he's posted uncharacteristically rough opening rounds in each of his last three starts, though he's recovered impressively each time, rattling off a T3, T4, and T12 in consecutive weeks.
Coming in well-rested and returning to a course where he's demonstrated total command, Scheffler remains the standard everyone else is chasing and if he can avoid another slow start on Thursday, he's in a tier of his own.
Tommy Fleetwood to win (boosted to +1800 on Bet365)
Win probability: 9.6%
Dimers' fair odds: +940 and above
Fleetwood stands out as arguably the most underpriced player on the board this week, listed at +2000 despite a fair value of around +940, less than half the odds his projection actually supports.
His Bay Hill history is quietly excellent, featuring a T3, two T10s, and five total top-20 finishes, and he arrives in peak form with back-to-back top-10 finishes in his last two starts.
What makes his case especially compelling is how comprehensively his statistical profile fits this course, ranking above field average in virtually every Strokes Gained category correlated with success at Bay Hill, compensating for a modest 127th in driving distance with elite accuracy (33rd), 2nd in scrambling, and 2nd in birdie-or-better rate on par 5s.
At +2000, he represents one of the strongest values in the field and our best ladder play with an edge in Top 20, Top 10 and Top 5 markets.
Arnold Palmer Invitational longshot bets
Beyond the two Dimers model favorites, several golfers have an edge at probabilities under 3.0%, setting up longshot bets for outright wins or Top 20 placements at good plus-money value.
Ben Griffin to win (+6000 on Bet365)
Win probability: 2.3%
Dimers' fair odds: +4250 and above
Griffin offers legitimate longshot value at +6000, well above his fair price of around +4250 per the Dimers model.
He arrives with some course familiarity, including a T14 in his first of two appearances at Bay Hill.
He's not a standout ball-striker from tee to green, but his accuracy and scoring efficiency give him a viable path to contention, and he ranks 20th in the field on par 5s, which matters big-time here.
The critical caveat, however, is his Sunday closer problem: while he ranks between 25th and 41st in scoring across the first three rounds, he plummets to 96th in Round 4 — a glaring concern on a course where a final-round charge is often what separates the champions from the pretenders.
It's a key reason he's finished slightly worse in each successive event since his season-opening T19.
He's a worthwhile dart throw at the right number, but his fourth-round track record is the key question mark.
JJ Spaun to win (+8000 on Bet365)
Win probability: 1.7%
Dimers' fair odds: +5780 and above
Spaun has had a tough start to 2026 after winning a major last year, with two missed cuts and nothing better than a T40 finish, but at +8000 against a fair value of +5780, there's undeniable value for those willing to take a flier on a get-right performance.
His best result at Bay Hill came just last year with a T31, giving him at least a baseline of course familiarity, and a few statistical bright spots offer a slim but real path to at least the cut: he ranks 40th in driving accuracy and sits inside the top 15 in birdie-or-better rate on both par 3s and par 5s, two areas that matter considerably on this layout.
Hi overall profile this season is uninspiring, but the value gap between his listed price and fair odds is hard to ignore for bettors looking for a high-upside longshot to add to their card.
Harry Hall to win (+12000 on Bet365)
Win probability: 1.3%
Dimers' fair odds: +7600 and above
Hall is the longest of these four longshots but carries one of the most compelling discrepancies, listed at +12000 against a fair value of roughly +7600, and bettors can find him as low as +8000 elsewhere, making line shopping especially worthwhile here.
His 2026 season has been the definition of volatile, with two missed cuts, two T24s and a T6, but variance isn't a bad thing if it opens up big value like this.
The flipside of Griffin's game, Hall's weekend scoring profile is elite: he ranks 7th and 17th in Rounds 3 and 4, respectively, while he ranks 72nd and 123rd in Rounds 1+2.
His weaker approach play and that he is making his Bay Hill debut against him, but his off-the-tee accuracy, scrambling, putting, and overall scoring all grade above field average.
For those hesitant to go all-in at 120/1, the most attractive entry point is a Top 20 bet at +270, a number that implies just 27% probability against his 35.8% probability from the Dimers model.
To get the most out of the Arnold Palmer Invitational, check out Dimers' full tournament predictions and compare with course history and other analytics to find an edge.
📲 The Dimers App is Here! Live NOW for both iOS and Android
Dimers' golf resources for 2026 PGA TOUR
As well as being your best source for PGA golf predictions, Dimers Pros also have access to the latest golf news, golf predictions for every game, weekly golf rankings, and golf matchup H2H tool.
- PGA Predictions: Our data-backed predictions for every tournament, including every major.
- Head-to-Head Predictor: Simulate any H2H tournament matchup between golfers
- Dimers' PGA Rankings: Our in-house approach to ranking the World's best golfers
- PGA Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the PGA TOUR
The Dimers Pro golf predictions ended last season on an elite run, headlined by Tommy Fleetwood's first win at the TOUR Championship.
This season, we've accurately identified value on Scottie Scheffler to win and Russell Henley to place Top 10 and Top 20 at the American Express, the live value on Justin Rose to win the Farmers Insurance Open at +500 and big edges on Tommy Fleetwood at Pebble Beach just last week.
Dimers and responsible gambling
Please remember to enjoy gambling responsibly. Responsible gambling means setting limits, staying in control, and understanding that luck is just part of the game. Make informed choices, set a budget, and know when to take a break. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.
The Dimers golf predictions are back for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, teeing off on Thursday, March 5 at Bay Hill Golf Club in Orlando, FL and after a successful weekend betting on Shane Lowry to place at the Cognizant Classic and cashing our head-to-head parlay, we've got the latest best golf bets to make at the latest signature event.
A $20M purse and one week before THE PLAYERS draws a loaded 72-man field featuring 28 of the world's top 30 ranked players, making it one of the most elite non-major fields of the season. The cut will trim the field to the top 50 and ties, plus all players within 10 strokes of the lead.
Bay Hill is a genuine test, and unlike every other venue the Tour has visited this season, it is a course that plays over par. Stretching out to 7,466 yards at a par 72, the layout demands length, but raw distance alone won't get the job done. Four par-3s each exceed 200 yards, a number of doglegs force players to think strategically off the tee, and thick rough punishes anyone who misses the fairway.
Six of the last seven champions have finished at 12-under par or worse, underscoring just how routinely this course humbles even the world's best. The one area where scoring opportunities exist are the par 5s, all of which play 570 yards or shorter, giving the longer hitters a genuine chance to attack.
MORE: Our boosted Top 20 finish parlay at Bay Hill Golf Club
Course history is key as well; seventeen of the past 20 winners have made at least three prior starts here, and the players who combine accurate ball-striking off the tee, reliable scrambling when greens are missed, and the ability to convert birdie chances on the reachable par 5s will hold a clear edge over the field.
Key storylines abound here - Justin Thomas and Sungjae Im are both making their season debuts, each returning to competition after a five-month absence, defending champion Russell Henley looks to protect home turf and help us cash our +500 matchups parlay, and Scottie Scheffler arrives at a course where he has two wins, looking to shake off his first-round woes as of late.
With the world's best assembled, a brutally honest golf course, and plenty of compelling storylines, the Arnold Palmer Invitational sets up as one of the most anticipated events of the Florida Swing.
Improve your golf betting with our Head-to-Head tool!
PGA Arnold Palmer Invitational tournament preview
- Date: March 5-8, 2026
- Location: Orlando, FL
- Course: Bay Hill Golf Club
- Par: 72 / 7,466 yards
- Purse: $20 million
- 2025 winner: Russell Henley (-11)
Based on data from the Dimers golf model, below are the five most likely winners of the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational this week.
Our win predictions are the result of simulating the tournament over 10,000 times via our AI models, as well as each golfer's odds to finish Top 5, 10 and 20:
1. Scottie Scheffler - The world No. 1 and model of dominance, Scheffler has now claimed four major championships and joined Tiger Woods and Jack Nicklaus as the only players to reach 20 PGA Tour wins and four majors before age 30. Three slow opening rounds have been a theme early in 2026, but he has rallied each time and Bay Hill is a place he has won twice, in 2022 and 2024, making it a logical venue for him to snap back into top form.
2. Tommy Fleetwood - Fleetwood claimed his first PGA Tour victory at the 2025 Tour Championship to secure the FedExCup, capping a career-defining season that also included starring for Europe at the Ryder Cup. He opened 2026 with a pair of top-10 results, a T4 at Pebble Beach and T7 at the Genesis Invitational, posting all eight rounds at 70 or better, suggesting his momentum has carried into the new season.
3. Rory McIlroy - McIlroy arrived in 2026 as the reigning Masters champion after completing the career Grand Slam. Making his third PGA Tour start of the season, he has strung together five consecutive rounds in the 60s, including a runner-up finish at Riviera and comes to Bay Hill, a venue where he has been consistently strong, with his game trending upward.
4. Russell Henley - At 36, Henley is playing some of the best golf of his career, having won last year's Arnold Palmer Invitational for his fifth PGA Tour title while finishing in the top 15 in strokes gained in several key categories. He enters this week having missed the cut at the Genesis Invitational and on a run of five straight finishes outside Orlando, setting him up for a bounce back.
5. Xander Schauffele - A rib injury derailed Schauffele's 2025 campaign, representing a significant step down from his brilliant 2024, though he still made the cut in all four majors and recorded at least two top-10 finishes among them. No longer dealing with that injury, he improved in each of his four West Coast starts this year (MC-T41-T19-T7) and arrives at Bay Hill with genuine momentum, looking for his first top-20 result at the venue.
| Golfer | Win% | Top 5% | Top 10% | Top 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Scottie Scheffler | 25.0% | 55.4% | 70.7% | 84.9% |
| 2. Tommy Fleetwood | 9.6% | 33.8% | 50.5% | 70.0% |
| 3. Rory McIlroy | 6.7% | 26.5% | 42.8% | 63.8% |
| 4. Russell Henley | 3.0% | 13.5% | 26.3% | 47.3% |
| 5. Xander Schauffele | 2.8% | 15.2% | 27.7% | 49.0% |
MORE: Dimers' in-house golf rankings
Who will win the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational?
For each tournament, we look at the golfers our model has identified with a higher probability to win than what is implied by the sportsbook odds.
We'll also highlight any standout prop and placement bets for other golfers if we find any appealing value hidden in the Dimers golf predictions.
Scottie Scheffler to win (+350 on FanDuel)
Win probability: 25.0%
Dimers' fair odds: +300 and above
Scheffler enters Bay Hill as the clear betting favorite, and for good reason; he's a two-time champion here, including a dominant five-shot victory in 2024, and the oddsmakers have installed him at +350 despite his fair value sitting closer to +300, meaning he's actually slightly overpriced relative to his 25% win probability.
The one wrinkle worth monitoring is his first-round form: he's posted uncharacteristically rough opening rounds in each of his last three starts, though he's recovered impressively each time, rattling off a T3, T4, and T12 in consecutive weeks.
Coming in well-rested and returning to a course where he's demonstrated total command, Scheffler remains the standard everyone else is chasing and if he can avoid another slow start on Thursday, he's in a tier of his own.
Tommy Fleetwood to win (boosted to +1800 on Bet365)
Win probability: 9.6%
Dimers' fair odds: +940 and above
Fleetwood stands out as arguably the most underpriced player on the board this week, listed at +1700 on bet365 where we've got an exclusive Dimers boost to +1800 odds, despite a fair value of around +940, less than half the odds his projection actually supports.
His Bay Hill history is excellent, featuring a T3, two T10s, and five total top-20 finishes, and he arrives in peak form with back-to-back top-10 finishes in his last two starts.
What makes his case especially compelling is how comprehensively his statistical profile fits this course, ranking above field average in virtually every Strokes Gained category correlated with success at Bay Hill, compensating for a modest 127th in driving distance with elite accuracy (33rd), 2nd in scrambling, and 2nd in birdie-or-better rate on par 5s.
At +1800 boosted odds on bet365, he represents one of the strongest values in the field and our best ladder play with an edge in Top 20, Top 10 and Top 5 markets.
Bet Tommy Fleetwood at bet365 for enhanced odds.
Arnold Palmer Invitational longshot bets
Beyond the two Dimers model favorites, several golfers have an edge at probabilities under 3.0%, setting up longshot bets for outright wins or Top 20 placements at good plus-money value.
Ben Griffin to win (+6000 on Bet365)
Win probability: 2.3%
Dimers' fair odds: +4250 and above
Griffin offers legitimate longshot value at +6000, well above his fair price of around +4250 per the Dimers model.
He arrives with some course familiarity, including a T14 in his first of two appearances at Bay Hill.
He's not a standout ball-striker from tee to green, but his accuracy and scoring efficiency give him a viable path to contention, and he ranks 20th in the field on par 5s, which matters big-time here.
The critical caveat, however, is his Sunday closer problem: while he ranks between 25th and 41st in scoring across the first three rounds, he plummets to 96th in Round 4 — a glaring concern on a course where a final-round charge is often what separates the champions from the pretenders.
It's a key reason he's finished slightly worse in each successive event since his season-opening T19.
He's a worthwhile dart throw at the right number, but his fourth-round track record is the key question mark.
JJ Spaun to win (+8000 on Bet365)
Win probability: 1.7%
Dimers' fair odds: +5780 and above
Spaun has had a tough start to 2026 after winning a major last year, with two missed cuts and nothing better than a T40 finish, but at +8000 against a fair value of +5780, there's undeniable value for those willing to take a flier on a get-right performance.
His best result at Bay Hill came just last year with a T31, giving him at least a baseline of course familiarity, and a few statistical bright spots offer a slim but real path to at least the cut: he ranks 40th in driving accuracy and sits inside the top 15 in birdie-or-better rate on both par 3s and par 5s, two areas that matter considerably on this layout.
Hi overall profile this season is uninspiring, but the value gap between his listed price and fair odds is hard to ignore for bettors looking for a high-upside longshot to add to their card.
Harry Hall to win (+12000 on Bet365)
Win probability: 1.3%
Dimers' fair odds: +7600 and above
Hall is the longest of these four longshots but carries one of the most compelling discrepancies, listed at +12000 against a fair value of roughly +7600, and bettors can find him as low as +8000 elsewhere, making line shopping especially worthwhile here.
His 2026 season has been the definition of volatile, with two missed cuts, two T24s and a T6, but variance isn't a bad thing if it opens up big value like this.
The flipside of Griffin's game, Hall's weekend scoring profile is elite: he ranks 7th and 17th in Rounds 3 and 4, respectively, while he ranks 72nd and 123rd in Rounds 1+2.
His weaker approach play and that he is making his Bay Hill debut against him, but his off-the-tee accuracy, scrambling, putting, and overall scoring all grade above field average.
For those hesitant to go all-in at 120/1, the most attractive entry point is a Top 20 bet at +270, a number that implies just 27% probability against his 35.8% probability from the Dimers model.
To get the most out of the Arnold Palmer Invitational, check out Dimers' full tournament predictions and compare with course history and other analytics to find an edge.
📲 The Dimers App is Here! Live NOW for both iOS and Android
Dimers' golf resources for 2026 PGA TOUR
As well as being your best source for PGA golf predictions, Dimers Pros also have access to the latest golf news, golf predictions for every game, weekly golf rankings, and golf matchup H2H tool.
- PGA Predictions: Our data-backed predictions for every tournament, including every major.
- Head-to-Head Predictor: Simulate any H2H tournament matchup between golfers
- Dimers' PGA Rankings: Our in-house approach to ranking the World's best golfers
- PGA Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the PGA TOUR
The Dimers Pro golf predictions ended last season on an elite run, headlined by Tommy Fleetwood's first win at the TOUR Championship.
This season, we've accurately identified value on Scottie Scheffler to win and Russell Henley to place Top 10 and Top 20 at the American Express, the live value on Justin Rose to win the Farmers Insurance Open at +500 and big edges on Tommy Fleetwood at Pebble Beach just last week.
Dimers and responsible gambling
Please remember to enjoy gambling responsibly. Responsible gambling means setting limits, staying in control, and understanding that luck is just part of the game. Make informed choices, set a budget, and know when to take a break. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.
To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Nick Slade through our fact-checking process.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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