Sky vs. Mercury prediction: Why Phoenix is favored to win Friday's WNBA matchup [5/15/2026]

The Phoenix Mercury will take on the Chicago Sky in WNBA action at Mortgage Matchup Center on Friday, beginning at 10:00 PM ET.

Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven WNBA model predicts the Mercury as the most likely winner of the Sky vs. Mercury game.

The Mercury, with the likes of Kahleah Copper, Alyssa Thomas and Jovana Nogic, are set to take on the Sky, whose lineup includes Skylar Diggins-Smith, Rickea Jackson and Kamilla Cardoso.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Friday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.

Sky vs. Mercury prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Friday's WNBA game between the Sky and Mercury, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives the Mercury a 60% chance of beating the Sky.

According to our model, the Sky (+4.5) have a 57% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 166.5 points has a 54% chance of staying under.

Sky vs. Mercury odds

We have sourced the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Sky	Mercury
Spread	+4.5 (-115)	-4.5 (-105)
Moneyline	+152	-180
Total	o166.5 (-106)	u166.5 (-110)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Sky vs. Mercury picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Sky +4.5	-115
Moneyline	Sky	+152
Total	Under 166.5	-110

According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Sky +4.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Sky vs. Mercury player props

Looking for Sky vs. Mercury WNBA prop bets? We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Mortgage Matchup Center.

Skylar Diggins-Smith is expected to lead the Sky with 17 points, 3 rebounds and 7 assists, while Kahleah Copper is projected to have 20 points, 4 rebounds and 2 assists for the Mercury.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's WNBA first basket picks.

Sky prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Sky are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
S. Diggins-Smith	17	3	7	2	39
Rickea Jackson	16	4	2	2	28
Kamilla Cardoso	13	9	2	0	31
Gabriela Jaquez	10	4	2	1	20
Jacy Sheldon	9	3	3	1	21

Mercury prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Mercury:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Kahleah Copper	20	4	2	2	33
Alyssa Thomas	16	9	11	0	50
Jovana Nogic	13	1	2	3	24
DeWanna Bonner	12	6	2	1	27
Natasha Mack	7	8	1	0	29

Sky vs. Mercury game-day updates and essential details

Friday's game between the Mercury and Sky at Mortgage Matchup Center is scheduled to begin at 10:00 PM ET.

• Who: Chicago Sky vs. Phoenix Mercury
• Date: Friday, May 15, 2026
• Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT
• Venue: Mortgage Matchup Center

Conclusion

We predict the Mercury, with a 60% win probability, will likely beat the Sky in Friday's WNBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.