Jun 5, 2026
Sun vs. Sky prediction: Why Chicago is favored to win Friday's WNBA game [6/5/2026]
Read Article WNBA first basket picks and predictions for Friday, June 5, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Experience Officer
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of WNBA slate on 6/5.
Our WNBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Friday, June 5, 2026—are live with the Mercury's Natasha Mack projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections draw on detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily WNBA player projections.
Mack, Kamilla Cardoso and Brittney Griner lead Friday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
WNBA first basket predictions tonight (June 5, 2026)
| Player (Team) | FB Probability |
|---|---|
| Natasha Mack (Mercury) | 14.2% |
| Kamilla Cardoso (Sky) | 14.1% |
| Brittney Griner (Sun) | 13.7% |
| Megan Gustafson (Fire) | 12.8% |
| Paige Bueckers (Wings) | 12.5% |
| Skylar Diggins-Smith (Sky) | 12.4% |
| Nneka Ogwumike (Sparks) | 12.3% |
| Dearica Hamby (Sparks) | 12.2% |
| Alyssa Thomas (Mercury) | 12.0% |
| Aneesah Morrow (Sun) | 11.7% |
| Leila Lacan (Sun) | 11.4% |
| Maddy Siegrist (Wings) | 10.6% |
| Carla Leite (Fire) | 10.1% |
| Rae Burrell (Sparks) | 9.6% |
| Jessica Shepard (Wings) | 9.5% |
| Azzi Fudd (Wings) | 9.4% |
| Bridget Carleton (Fire) | 9.3% |
| Sarah Ashlee Barker (Fire) | 9.3% |
| Monique Akoa-Makani (Mercury) | 8.8% |
| Emily Engstler (Fire) | 8.6% |
| Erica Wheeler (Sparks) | 8.3% |
| DeWanna Bonner (Mercury) | 8.2% |
| Jacy Sheldon (Sky) | 8.2% |
| Arike Ogunbowale (Wings) | 7.9% |
| Natasha Cloud (Sky) | 7.9% |
| Ariel Atkins (Sparks) | 7.6% |
| Azura Stevens (Sky) | 7.5% |
| Noemie Brochant (Mercury) | 6.8% |
| Diamond Miller (Sun) | 6.7% |
| Saniya Rivers (Sun) | 6.5% |
WNBA first basket picks today (June 5, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Megan Gustafson | Fire | 4.4% | +1100 | 12.8% |
| Natasha Mack | Mercury | 2.4% | +750 | 14.2% |
| Jacy Sheldon | Sky | 1.9% | +1500 | 8.2% |
| Erica Wheeler | Sparks | 1.6% | +1400 | 8.3% |
| Maddy Siegrist | Wings | 1.1% | +950 | 10.6% |
| Natasha Cloud | Sky | 0.2% | +1200 | 7.9% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 6/5.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Friday, June 5, 2026, Natasha Mack, Kamilla Cardoso and Brittney Griner lead our first basket projections, while Megan Gustafson shapes as the strongest value play at +1100. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ WNBA first basket model.
For tips and resources on responsible wagering, visit our Responsible Gambling section.
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Damien Souness is Chief Experience Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, helping lead sports media brands such as Dimers. He specializes in creating trustworthy and data-driven content for sports fans, with experience working for globally recognized sports and media organizations.
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