Jun 5, 2026
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Read Article Mercury vs. Fire prediction: Why Portland is favored to win Friday's WNBA matchup [6/5/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Phoenix Mercury vs Portland Fire predictions for WNBA Friday.
The Portland Fire will face the Phoenix Mercury in WNBA action at Moda Center on Friday, commencing at 10:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced WNBA model predicts the Fire as the most likely winner of the Mercury vs. Fire game.
The Fire, who have stars like Carla Leite, Megan Gustafson and Emily Engstler, will face off against the Mercury, whose lineup includes Alyssa Thomas, Jovana Nogic and DeWanna Bonner.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Friday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.
Mercury vs. Fire prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Friday's WNBA game between the Mercury and Fire, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Fire a 58.0% chance of beating the Mercury.
According to our model, the Mercury (+2.5) have a 50.9% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 161.5 points has a 51.6% chance of going over.
Mercury vs. Fire odds
We have sourced the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Mercury | Fire |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +2.5 (-105) | -2.5 (-114) |
| Moneyline | +125 | -144 |
| Total | o161.5 (-104) | u161.5 (-118) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Mercury vs. Fire picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Mercury +2.5 | -105 |
| Moneyline | Fire | -144 |
| Total | Over 161.5 | -104 |
According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 161.5 total points.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Mercury vs. Fire player props
WNBA prop bets are a common way to wager on Friday's Phoenix vs. Portland game without necessarily betting on the outcome. We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Moda Center.
Alyssa Thomas is expected to lead the Mercury with 16 points, 9 rebounds and 9 assists, while Carla Leite is projected to have 12 points, 2 rebounds and 4 assists for the Fire.
Looking at the opening tip, the numbers point to Natasha Mack striking first with a 14.2% probability.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.
Mercury prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Mercury are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alyssa Thomas | 16 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 47 |
| Jovana Nogic | 12 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 19 |
| DeWanna Bonner | 10 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 22 |
| M. Akoa-Makani | 10 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 23 |
| Natasha Mack | 8 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 27 |
Fire prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Fire:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carla Leite | 12 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 24 |
| Megan Gustafson | 9 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 19 |
| Emily Engstler | 8 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 27 |
| B. Carleton | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 19 |
| Sarah Barker | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 18 |
Mercury vs. Fire game-day updates and essential details
Friday's matchup between the Fire and Mercury at Moda Center is scheduled to begin at 10:00 PM ET.
- Who: Phoenix Mercury vs. Portland Fire
- Date: Friday, June 5, 2026
- Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT
- Venue: Moda Center
Conclusion
We predict the Fire, with a 58.0% win probability, will likely beat the Mercury in Friday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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