Sky vs. Fire prediction: Why Chicago is favored to win Saturday's WNBA matchup [5/9/2026]

The Portland Fire will face the favored Chicago Sky in WNBA action at Moda Center on Saturday, commencing at 9:00 PM ET.

Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced WNBA model predicts the Sky as the most likely winner of the Sky vs. Fire game.

The Fire, who have the likes of Carla Leite, Luisa Geiselsoder and Haley Jones, are set to take on the Sky, whose lineup includes Kamilla Cardoso, Rickea Jackson and Skylar Diggins-Smith.

This article offers a closer look at Saturday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.

Sky vs. Fire prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Saturday's WNBA game between the Sky and Fire, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives the Sky a 64% chance of beating the Fire.

According to our model, the Fire (+4.5) have a 53% chance of covering the spread, while the 164.5-point over/under has a 53% chance of staying under.

Sky vs. Fire odds

We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Sky	Fire
Spread	-4.5 (-125)	+4.5 (-105)
Moneyline	-215	+185
Total	o164.5 (-110)	u164.5 (-118)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Sky vs. Fire picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Fire +4.5	-105
Moneyline	Fire	+185
Total	Under 164.5	-118

According to our best WNBA bets, the top play to make on this game is Fire +4.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Sky vs. Fire player props

WNBA prop bets are a popular way to wager on the Sky vs. Fire game without necessarily betting on the outcome. We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Moda Center.

Kamilla Cardoso is expected to lead the Sky with 16 points, 9 rebounds and 3 assists, while Carla Leite is projected to have 14 points, 2 rebounds and 4 assists for the Fire.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's WNBA first basket picks.

Sky prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Sky are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Kamilla Cardoso	16	9	3	0	37
Rickea Jackson	15	3	2	2	26
S. Diggins-Smith	15	3	6	1	33
Rachel Banham	10	2	3	2	20
Jacy Sheldon	8	2	3	1	19

Fire prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Fire:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Carla Leite	14	2	4	1	27
L. Geiselsoder	10	6	2	3	28
Haley Jones	10	5	3	1	27
B. Carleton	7	4	2	1	19
Emily Engstler	6	5	3	1	24

Sky vs. Fire game-day updates and essential details

Saturday's game between the Fire and Sky at Moda Center is scheduled to begin at 9:00 PM ET.

• Who: Chicago Sky vs. Portland Fire
• Date: Saturday, May 9, 2026
• Time: 9:00 PM ET/6:00PM PT
• Venue: Moda Center

Conclusion

We predict the Sky, with a 64% win probability, will likely beat the Fire in Saturday's WNBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.