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Reds vs. Cubs prediction: Why Cubs are favored to win Thursday's MLB matchup [5/7/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs predictions for MLB Thursday.
MLB action continues on Thursday at 2:20 PM ET as the Cincinnati Reds lock horns with the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field.
Shota Imanaga (3-2, 2.40 ERA) will get the ball for the Cubs, while the Reds have opted for Rhett Lowder (3-2, 5.09 ERA).
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven MLB model predicts the Cubs as the most likely winner of the Reds vs. Cubs game.
This article offers a closer look at Thursday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Reds vs. Cubs prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Thursday's MLB matchup between the Reds and Cubs, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently gives the Cubs a 63% chance of defeating the Reds.
According to our model, the Reds (+1.5) have a 53% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 8.5 runs has a 51% chance of going over.
Reds vs. Cubs odds [5/7/2026]
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Reds | Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-122) | -1.5 (+105) |
| Moneyline | +169 | -200 |
| Total | o8.5 (-105) | u8.5 (-112) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Reds vs. Cubs picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Reds +1.5 | -122 |
| Moneyline | Reds | +169 |
| Total | Over 8.5 | -105 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Reds to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Reds vs. Cubs game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's MLB matchup between the Cubs and Reds at Wrigley Field is scheduled to commence at 2:20 PM ET.
- Who: Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs
- Date: Thursday, May 7, 2026
- Time: 2:20 PM ET/11:20AM PT
- Venue: Wrigley Field
Conclusion
We predict the Cubs, with a 63% win probability, will likely beat the Reds in Thursday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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