Mexico vs. England prediction, odds, props, World Cup 2026 picks [Round of 16]

Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Sunday's World Cup 2026 game between Mexico and England, forming part of our World Cup 2026 predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model indicates a 27.4% chance of Mexico winning, a 43.2% chance for England, and a 29.4% chance of a draw.

Additionally, the over/under total of 2.5 goals has a 64.6% chance of staying under, with a 58.3% likelihood of at least one team keeping a clean sheet. In the win to nil market, England holds a 28.5% probability to win without conceding, with Mexico given a 17.7% chance.

For bettors looking to cover multiple possibilities, the most likely double chance result is England to win or draw at 72.6%.

A quick reminder: standard World Cup markets apply to 90 minutes of regulation play only, excluding extra time unless stated otherwise. This differs from sports like the NBA, where overtime is typically included.

England vs. Mexico odds

We have researched the best World Cup 2026 odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Moneyline

Mexico	England	Draw
+210	+145	+215

Total Goals

Over 2.5	Under 2.5
+138	-165

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Mexico vs. England picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: England @ +145 via DraftKings
• Total Goals: Under 2.5 @ -165 via DraftKings
• Win to Nil: England @ +250 via BetMGM
• Double Chance: England or Draw @ -290 via FanDuel
• Both Teams To Score: No @ -120 via DraftKings

According to our World Cup 2026 best bets, the top play to make on this game is England to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Mexico vs. England: Correct score and BTTS predictions

Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 1-0 England win being the most probable:

Final Score	Probability
Mexico 0-1 England	14.6%
Mexico 1-1 England	13.2%
Mexico 0-0 England	12.1%

When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 41.7% chance of both sides finding the net and a 58.3% chance that at least one doesn’t.

Mexico vs. England player props: Anytime goal scorer predictions

Our World Cup 2026 player projections for Sunday highlight the top candidates to score a goal in Mexico-England:

Mexico

• Raul Jimenez: 21.3% probability
• Julian Quinones: 17.5% probability
• Roberto Alvarado: 10.2% probability
• Brian Gutierrez: 10.1% probability
• Luis Romo: 6.3% probability

England

• Harry Kane: 29.1% probability
• Jude Bellingham: 14.3% probability
• Marcus Rashford: 14.0% probability
• Noni Madueke: 11.4% probability
• Declan Rice: 6.9% probability

Mexico vs. England game-day updates and essential details

Sunday's soccer World Cup action between Mexico and England at Estadio Banorte is scheduled to start at 8:00 PM ET.

• Who: Mexico vs. England
• Date: Sunday, July 5, 2026
• Time: 8:00 PM ET/5:00PM PT
• Venue: Estadio Banorte

All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.

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Conclusion

According to our computer model, Mexico has a 27.4% win probability on Sunday, England has a 43.2% win probability, and there is a 29.4% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.