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Genesis Invitational golf parlay picks: Best head-to-head matchup picks at Riviera Country Club
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Reviewed by Dave Garofolo
The PGA TOUR heads to Riviera Country Club for the second signature event of the season and we have parlayed three golfers our model says are more likely to win their tournament matchup for +504 odds.
We've got back-to-back signature events on the PGA TOUR calendar as we roll from Pebble Beach into Riviera Country Club for the Genesis Invitational, returning to its traditional home after last year's displacement to Torrey Pines due to wildfires.
As always, Dimers has you covered with our best golf bets, full golf predictions and outright picks for who will lift the trophy on Sunday.
As always, we've analyzed the best betting value in outrights and placements at this week's PGA TOUR event, and now it’s time to dive into some matchups angles with these +504 golf parlay picks, one of our favorite ways to attack elite-field events where everyone gets four guaranteed rounds.
Outright winners and Top-5, Top-10 and Top-20 markets typically draw the most attention, but head-to-head matchups can be just as profitable as you are narrowing down the field of competition to just a handful of golfers.
To make this market easier, Dimers uses an in-house head-to-head golf simulation tool that pits golfers directly against each other and projects who will finish higher, whether for Round 1 or across the full 72 holes for every tournament on the PGA TOUR.
Genesis Invitational Parlay Picks at +504 Odds
To make this parlay, we'll be using the Head-to-Head matchups available at DraftKings Sportsbook. We'll enter both golfers into our H2H Predictor, select the Tournament-long option, and see which golfer gets the advantage for the weekend.
With a handy "Fair Odds" to "Percentages" toggle, you can always check to see if there's value in any given matchup, and with a Dimers Pro subscription, you can simulate unlimited matchups for every tournament.
Leg 1: Jake Knapp to beat Ludvig Aberg (-132)
We'll start with a play backed by the model and early 2026 form, with these two golfers trending in drastically different directions.
Aberg is the defending champ of this event, though it was held at Torrey Pines, and when it comes to tournament history, these two golfers have three combined appearances
Heading into the Genesis, Aberg has a withdrawal, missed cut and T37 in three events this year. Meanwhile, Knapp hasn't finished outside T11 in four starts, posting one round over 70 in his last eight.
Aberg is losing strokes in every facet of his game save for his 81st-ranked performance off the tee, while Knapp has gained the third-most strokes on the field on the entire TOUR this year.
At 56.0% for a win or tie, you're getting Knapp right at fair odds, while Aberg is just slightly overpriced.
Leg 2: Matt Fitzpatrick to beat Harris English (-116)
The next matchup we're looking at features an Englishman vs. a man named English.
Fitzpatrick debuted with a T63 at The American Express before rattling off a solo 9th and T14 in his past two events, while English has been the model of consistency, turning in four cards landing him between T28 and T22 in each event.
This will be the sixth appearance for Fitzpatrick at the Genesis, with mixed results ranging from two missed cuts to a T5 personal best. English has been here 10 times. Since a string of three missed cuts from 2017-2019, he's managed results of T12, solo 7th and T24 in his last three.
Where this matchup could be decided is in the approach game - Fitzpatrick has gained the 4th-most strokes against the field on approach this season, while English ranks 101st.
At 57.1% to win or tie, Fitzpatrick gets a little value to win this matchup despite nearly identical odds on English.
Leg 3: Si Woo Kim to beat Chris Gotterup (-118)
Two golfers off to hot starts looking to rebound after their worst finish of the year sets the stage for our third and final matchup.
Gotterup has a pair of wins and a T18 before his T37 at Pebble Beach, and Kim has managed T11, T6, T2 and T3 before carding a T45 at Pebble.
This venue hasn't been the most kind to Kim, peaking with a solo third in 2019, turning in two missed cuts and a 73 since then as his worst outings. What Gotterup doesn't have that Kim does, is experience, as he's never competed here professionally.
Course history is a big factor at this event and Kim is bringing some of his best-ever form into a venue that's challenged him, but is familiar.
Both bring well-rounded games hurt by putting deficiencies, but Kim has a slight edge on Approach play where this course is likely to test the most.
A 56.2% probability to win or tie makes Si Woo Kim the play over Gotterup, who clocks in under 50%.
+504 Genesis Invitational Parlay Picks
To round up our parlay, we have these three matchups below, with our selected golfer predicted to win over the course of 72 holes, at odds of +504 on DraftKings Sportsbook:
| Tournament Matchup | Win % | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Knapp to beat Ludvig Aberg | 51.0% | -132 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick to beat Harris English | 52.8% | -116 |
| Si Woo Kim to beat Chris Gotterup | 51.6% | -118 |
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To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Dave Garofolo through our fact-checking process.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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