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Read Article Collingwood Magpies vs. Hawthorn Hawks prediction: Why Hawks are favored to win Thursday's AFL Round 8 matchup [4/30/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Collingwood Magpies vs Hawthorn Hawks predictions for AFL Thursday.
AFL action continues on Thursday at 5:30 AM ET as the favored Hawthorn Hawks square off with the Collingwood Magpies at Melbourne Cricket Ground.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' proven AFL model projects the Hawks as the most likely winner of the Hawks vs. Magpies game.
This article offers a closer look at Thursday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Magpies vs. Hawks prediction: Who will win Round 8 game?
Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's AFL matchup between the Hawks and Magpies, forming part of our AFL predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Hawks a 75% chance of beating the Magpies.
According to our model, the Magpies (+26.5) have a 58% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 174.5 points has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.
Hawthorn vs. Collingwood odds
We have researched the best AFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Hawks | Magpies |
|---|---|---|
| H2H (Moneyline) | -417 | +285 |
| Line (Spread) | -26.5 (-115) | +26.5 (-115) |
| Total | o174.5 (-120) | u174.5 (-120) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Hawks vs. Magpies picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Magpies +26.5 | -115 |
| Moneyline | Magpies | +285 |
| Total | Under 174.5 | -120 |
According to our AFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Magpies +26.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Magpies vs. Hawks game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's Australian rules football matchup between the Magpies and Hawks at Melbourne Cricket Ground is scheduled to begin at 5:30 AM ET.
- Who: Hawthorn Hawks vs. Collingwood Magpies
- Date: Thursday, April 30, 2026
- Time: 5:30 AM ET/2:30AM PT
- Venue: Melbourne Cricket Ground
The AFL is available to bet on in the US through all major sportsbooks, with fans highlighting the high-octane 360-degree nature of the sport as a top reason to follow it.
Conclusion
We predict the Hawks, with a 75% win probability, will likely beat the Magpies in Thursday's AFL matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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