Three data-backed ways to bet on WNBA Finals Game 3 as Mercury trail Aces 2-0

The Phoenix Mercury host the Las Vegas Aces in Game 3 of the WNBA Finals and are in desperate need of a win, down 2-0 early in the series.

The first-ever seven-game WNBA Finals may not reach its new length if the Mercury can't take advantage of their home court and put together a couple of wins before the series returns to Las Vegas.

With both the Aces (+1300) and Mercury (+1600) previously identified as WNBA Championship value plays by the Dimers model, users who tailed both futures bets are already getting a guaranteed winner from this series, but in the meantime, we're looking to use the Dimers WNBA tools to find valuable betting opportunities in the individual games.

By combining our WNBA Projections, Best WNBA Props and WNBA Player Trends, there are a number of betting angles in this must-win game for Phoenix.

Bet Alyssa Thomas to record a Triple Double

The league's all-time leader in triple doubles was a key addition to the Phoenix Mercury in the offseason and played a pivotal role in the team reaching the WNBA Finals.

Alyssa Thomas gets a projections of 17.1 Points, 10.1 Rebounds and 10.1 Assists in Game 3, putting her in triple double territory. She came up 1 assist shy in Game 1 and will have to contribute in all facets of the game for the Mercury to stand a chance at evening up the series.

Thomas is +350 to record a triple double on FanDuel Sportsbook, presenting a strong plus-money opportunity to back one of the league's most valuable players.

Bet A'ja Wilson to get 12+ Rebounds

The top overall player prop on Dimers is on A'ja Wilson to record over 10.5 rebounds with a 61.0% probability, with the model identifying the league MVP with a "Board Crasher" signal

That prop presents value on its own at -140 odds with a 2.7% edge, but sharp-eyed bettors can find a plus-money opportunity instead based on Wilson's projection of 12.5 rebounds.

Through two games in the finals, Wilson has 14 and 10 rebounds, while she tallied 13, 16 and 18 in her three regular season meetings vs. the Mercury for a strong head-to-head trend.

Wilson is at +118 for 12+ rebounds on FanDuel and +155 for 13+ rebounds on DraftKings, both marks supported by our model's projection of 12.5 rebounds in Game 3.

Bet a Three-Point Parlay at +525 Odds

Another way to use the Dimers WNBA Projections Hub is to find a group of players projected for the same floor in a particular stat.

In Game 3 of the WNBA Fnals, the Dimers model projects four players to get at least 2.0 three-pointers: Satou Sabally and Kahleah Copper of the Phoenix Mercury, and Jackie Young and Jewell Lloyd of the Las Vegas Aces.

When comparing with the Dimers WNBA trends and recent game history, all four are averaging over 1.5 threes per game in the playoffs, and with the exception of Young in Game 1, they've all hit 2+ in each game of the Finals.

Playing all four three-point shooters to get a pair of threes tonight makes a +525 WNBA Parlay on DraftKings.

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