Aces vs. Sparks prediction: Las Vegas favored to win Sunday's WNBA matchup [5/10/2026]

The Los Angeles Sparks will take on the Las Vegas Aces in WNBA action at Crypto.com Arena on Sunday, starting at 6:00 PM ET.

Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven WNBA model predicts the Aces as the most likely winner of the Aces vs. Sparks game.

The Sparks, who have the likes of Nneka Ogwumike, Dearica Hamby and Kelsey Plum, are set to take on the Aces, who feature A'ja Wilson, Jackie Young and Chelsea Gray.

This article offers further insights into Sunday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.

Aces vs. Sparks prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Sunday's WNBA matchup between the Aces and Sparks, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives the Aces a 58% chance of defeating the Sparks.

According to our model, the Aces (-1.5) have a 52% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 178.5 points has a 65% chance of staying under.

Aces vs. Sparks odds

We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Aces	Sparks
Spread	-1.5 (-108)	+1.5 (-105)
Moneyline	-125	+105
Total	o178.5 (-110)	u178.5 (-110)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Aces vs. Sparks picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Aces -1.5	-108
Moneyline	Aces	-125
Total	Under 178.5	-110

According to our best WNBA bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 178.5 total points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Aces vs. Sparks player props

WNBA player props are an exciting way to wager on Sunday's Aces vs. Sparks matchup without necessarily betting on the outcome. We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Crypto.com Arena.

A'ja Wilson is expected to lead the Aces with 29 points, 10 rebounds and 4 assists, while Nneka Ogwumike is projected to have 19 points, 8 rebounds and 3 assists for the Sparks.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's WNBA first basket picks.

Aces prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Aces are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
A'ja Wilson	29	10	4	1	60
Jackie Young	19	5	6	2	42
Chelsea Gray	11	4	6	2	32
Jewell Loyd	10	3	2	2	21
Chennedy Carter	9	2	2	0	16

Sparks prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Sparks:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Nneka Ogwumike	19	8	3	1	37
Dearica Hamby	19	9	4	0	40
Kelsey Plum	18	3	5	2	32
Ariel Atkins	14	3	3	2	29
Cameron Brink	7	6	1	1	22

Aces vs. Sparks game-day updates and essential details

Sunday's matchup between the Sparks and Aces at Crypto.com Arena is scheduled to start at 6:00 PM ET.

• Who: Las Vegas Aces vs. Los Angeles Sparks
• Date: Sunday, May 10, 2026
• Time: 6:00 PM ET/3:00PM PT
• Venue: Crypto.com Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Aces, with a 58% win probability, will likely beat the Sparks in Sunday's WNBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.