Aces vs. Mercury prediction: Why Phoenix is favored to win Game 3 of 2025 WNBA Finals

WNBA Finals action continues on Wednesday at 8:00PM ET as the Las Vegas Aces lock horns with the Phoenix Mercury in Game 3 of the series at Mortgage Matchup Center.

Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven WNBA model projects the Mercury as the most likely winner of Game 3.

"Our team has simulated the outcome of Wednesday's Aces-Mercury game 10,000 times," said Dimers' Chief Content Officer, Nick Slade.

"With the latest updates and numerous other variables, we estimate the Mercury's chance of winning at 66%, with the Aces at 34%."

The Mercury, led by Satou Sabally, Kahleah Copper and Alyssa Thomas, are set to take on the Aces, who feature A'ja Wilson, Jackie Young and Chelsea Gray.

For expanded analysis of Wednesday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks, visit our interactive Aces vs. Mercury predictions page.

Aces vs. Mercury prediction: Who will win Game 3?

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Wednesday's WNBA matchup between the Aces and Mercury 10,000 times as part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives the Mercury a 66% chance of beating the Aces in Game 3 of the series.

According to our model, the bookmakers have got it right, and the Aces and Mercury each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 163.5 points has a 54% chance of going over.

Aces vs. Mercury Game 3 odds

We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Aces	Mercury
Spread	+4.5 (-112)	-4.5 (-105)
Moneyline	+155	-175
Total	o163.5 (-108)	u163.5 (-105)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Make the most of your sports betting experience by exploring our comprehensive list of US betting apps, and the latest sportsbooks in 2025, ensuring you never miss a top new-user deal.

Aces vs. Mercury picks and best bets for Game 3

Our model's strongest edge in today's Aces vs. Mercury matchup is on the moneyline.

Our expert predictions, matched against the current odds, reveal the best WNBA picks and WNBA best bets for every game throughout the season.

Unlimited access to our complete set of picks, including this one, is available via Dimers Pro.

Aces vs. Mercury Game 3 player props

Betting on Aces vs. Mercury WNBA prop bets? We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Mortgage Matchup Center.

A'ja Wilson is expected to lead the Aces in scoring, while Satou Sabally is projected to be the top scorer for the Mercury.

Dimers Pro users can access a full range of player props and projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and more, for every WNBA game this season.

Aces vs. Mercury Game 3 updates and essential details

Wednesday's Game 3 between the Mercury and Aces at Mortgage Matchup Center is scheduled to start at 8:00PM ET.

• Who: Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury
• Date: Wednesday, October 8, 2025
• Time: 8:00PM ET/5:00PM PT
• Venue: Mortgage Matchup Center

Dimers' comprehensive preview of Wednesday's Aces vs. Mercury matchup includes our prediction, picks and the latest betting odds.

Before making any Aces vs. Mercury picks, be sure to check out the latest WNBA predictions and betting advice from Dimers Pro.

Conclusion

We predict the Mercury, with a 66% win probability, will likely beat the Aces on Wednesday.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Aces vs. Mercury insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Note: Clicking links to our partners may earn us a referral fee. Learn about how we review products and services.

More on WNBA

Stay up-to-date with the latest WNBA news and WNBA parlay picks throughout the season.

Make the most of your sports betting experience by exploring our comprehensive list of US betting apps, and the latest sportsbooks in 2025, ensuring you never miss a top new-user deal.