Sparks vs. Mercury prediction: Why Phoenix is favored to win Thursday's WNBA matchup [5/21/2026]

The Phoenix Mercury will take on the Los Angeles Sparks in WNBA action at Mortgage Matchup Center on Thursday, commencing at 10:00 PM ET.

Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven WNBA model projects the Mercury as the most likely winner of the Sparks vs. Mercury game.

The Mercury, who have the likes of Kahleah Copper, Alyssa Thomas and Jovana Nogic, will face off against the Sparks, featuring Kelsey Plum, Nneka Ogwumike and Dearica Hamby.

This article offers a closer look at Thursday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.

Sparks vs. Mercury prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's WNBA matchup between the Sparks and Mercury, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently gives the Mercury a 61% chance of beating the Sparks.

According to our model, the Mercury (-2.5) have a 52% chance of covering the spread, while the 178.5-point over/under has a 67% chance of staying under.

Sparks vs. Mercury odds

We have sourced the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Sparks	Mercury
Spread	+2.5 (-105)	-2.5 (-110)
Moneyline	+125	-142
Total	o178.5 (-106)	u178.5 (-114)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Sparks vs. Mercury picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Mercury -2.5	-110
Moneyline	Mercury	-142
Total	Under 178.5	-114

According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 178.5 total points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Sparks vs. Mercury player props

Looking for Sparks vs. Mercury WNBA prop bets? We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Mortgage Matchup Center.

Kelsey Plum is expected to lead the Sparks with 20 points, 3 rebounds and 5 assists, while Kahleah Copper is projected to have 20 points, 3 rebounds and 2 assists for the Mercury.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's WNBA first basket picks.

Sparks prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Sparks are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Kelsey Plum	20	3	5	2	37
Nneka Ogwumike	18	7	2	2	34
Dearica Hamby	17	8	3	0	36
Ariel Atkins	14	4	4	2	31
Rae Burrell	8	3	1	1	17

Mercury prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Mercury:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Kahleah Copper	20	3	2	3	33
Alyssa Thomas	17	9	11	0	52
Jovana Nogic	16	1	2	4	26
DeWanna Bonner	13	6	2	2	29
Natasha Mack	8	9	2	0	30

Sparks vs. Mercury game-day updates and essential details

Thursday's game between the Mercury and Sparks at Mortgage Matchup Center is scheduled to begin at 10:00 PM ET.

• Who: Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury
• Date: Thursday, May 21, 2026
• Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT
• Venue: Mortgage Matchup Center

Conclusion

We predict the Mercury, with a 61% win probability, will likely beat the Sparks in Thursday's WNBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.