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Read Article MLB picks today: Independence Day MLB best bets highlight Padres vs. Dodgers play [7/4/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get MLB picks today and best bets for Saturday, July 4, 2026.
Today’s MLB picks for Independence Day are here, with Padres vs. Dodgers among the top plays identified by our model across Saturday’s MLB schedule.
Dimers’ predictive analytics engine runs 24/7, searching the latest baseball odds to discover real betting edges. The result? Data-backed plays that help Dimers Pro members make smarter decisions.
List of MLB best bets tonight [7/4, updated 9:38PM ET]
Below, you’ll find today’s best baseball bets, ranked by edge for Saturday, July 4, 2026.
Padres vs. Dodgers Over 8.5 runs (-104)
- Edge: 4.3%
- Probability: 55.3%
- Matchup: Padres vs. Dodgers (10:10PM ET)
Our model has identified value on Over 8.5 runs in Padres vs. Dodgers at -104 odds. A 55.3% probability produces an edge of 4.3%, making this the strongest play for today's MLB slate.
MLB best bets summary: Saturday, 7/4/2026
As of 9:38PM ET, here is our top MLB bet by edge recommended by our model:
| Matchup | Bet | Odds | Edge | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padres vs. Dodgers | Over 8.5 runs | -104 @ Polymarket | 4.3% | 55.3% |
List of upcoming MLB games to bet on [7/4/2026]
- Red Sox vs. Angels (9:38PM ET, Saturday)
- Marlins vs. Athletics (9:40PM ET, Saturday)
- Brewers vs. D-Backs (9:40PM ET, Saturday)
- Padres vs. Dodgers (10:10PM ET, Saturday)
- Mets vs. Braves (12:30PM ET, Sunday)
- Pirates vs. Nationals (1:00PM ET, Sunday)
- Orioles vs. Reds (1:05PM ET, Sunday)
- Twins vs. Yankees (1:35PM ET, Sunday)
- White Sox vs. Guardians (2:00PM ET, Sunday)
- Cardinals vs. Cubs (2:30PM ET, Sunday)
- Phillies vs. Royals (3:00PM ET, Sunday)
- Tigers vs. Rangers (3:30PM ET, Sunday)
- Rays vs. Astros (3:30PM ET, Sunday)
- Giants vs. Rockies (4:00PM ET, Sunday)
- Brewers vs. D-Backs (4:00PM ET, Sunday)
- Marlins vs. Athletics (4:30PM ET, Sunday)
- Blue Jays vs. Mariners (5:00PM ET, Sunday)
- Padres vs. Dodgers (7:20PM ET, Sunday)
- Red Sox vs. Angels (9:30PM ET, Sunday)
Conclusion
Our MLB best bets are locked and loaded for July 4, 2026, featuring plays such as over 8.5 runs in the Padres vs. Dodgers matchup. Powered by advanced simulations, these picks are here to boost your betting game.
Our predictions are drawn from current data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice, head to our Responsible Gambling hub.
All odds and probabilities in this article are correct and accurate at the time of publication.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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