Home run predictions and picks: Top bet for Sunday has +900 odds [7/12/2026]
Get home run predictions today guided by expert analysis of Sunday's MLB slate.
Our MLB home run predictions for Sunday, July 12, 2026, feature Shohei Ohtani as the top projected hitter, per Dimers Pro's latest simulation data.
Sunday's HR projections pull from our proprietary home run predictions, which simulate every MLB matchup 10,000 times to reveal the top slugging candidates today.
Home run predictions for July 12, 2026
See which hitters join Ohtani on today’s list — plus a long-shot pick the model rates as value at +900.
| Player (Team) | HR Projection |
|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers) | 25.1% |
| Eugenio Suárez (Reds) | 20.6% |
| Pete Alonso (Orioles) | 19.0% |
| Kyle Tucker (Dodgers) | 18.6% |
| Teoscar Hernández (Dodgers) | 18.5% |
| Ben Rice (Yankees) | 18.3% |
| Jazz Chisholm (Yankees) | 17.8% |
| Junior Caminero (Rays) | 17.7% |
| Max Muncy (Dodgers) | 17.6% |
| Juan Soto (Mets) | 17.2% |
Our analysis shows Ohtani leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 25.1% chance to go deep, followed by Eugenio Suárez (20.6%) and Pete Alonso (19.0%).
Kyle Tucker and Teoscar Hernández are among several other sluggers to crack the top 10.
Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR prediction for Sunday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.
Sunday's home run picks [7/12/2026]
Powered by 10,000 simulations and data-driven factors like weather and pitcher form, Dimers Pro spotlights today’s top home run prop.
Brett Baty (Mets) to hit a home run
- Probability: 12.6%
- Odds: +900
- Edge: 2.6%
- Game: Red Sox vs. Mets (1:40 PM EDT)
- Pitching matchup: Payton Tolle
Though outside today’s top 10 home run projections, New York slugger Brett Baty rates as a value play at +900 with DraftKings Sportsbook, showing a 2.6% edge.
Against Red Sox starter Payton Tolle, the data supports Baty as one of Sunday’s strongest value spots among available home run props.
Pro users have access to all of our home run predictions today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.
Conclusion
For July 12, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Shohei Ohtani, Eugenio Suárez and Pete Alonso projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Brett Baty who emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 2.6% edge at +900 odds.
Dive into more MLB player projections with our list of Sunday's top 10 pitchers by projected strikeouts
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
