Jun 11, 2026
MLB player props today: Thursday's best props include Ryan Feltner [6/11/2026]
Read Article Home run predictions for Thursday include Juan Soto, Seiya Suzuki [6/11/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get home run predictions today backed by expert analysis of Thursday's MLB slate.
Our MLB home run predictions for Thursday, June 11, 2026, feature Juan Soto as the top projected hitter, according to Dimers Pro's latest simulation data.
Thursday's HR projections come from our home run predictions, which simulate every MLB matchup 10,000 times to reveal the most likely home run hitters today.
Home run predictions for June 11, 2026
See which hitters join Soto on today’s list — including one long-shot pick the model rates as value at +830.
| Player (Team) | HR Projection |
|---|---|
| Juan Soto (Mets) | 22.3% |
| Michael Busch (Cubs) | 20.6% |
| Francisco Alvarez (Mets) | 20.4% |
| Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers) | 19.7% |
| Seiya Suzuki (Cubs) | 18.9% |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong (Cubs) | 18.8% |
| MJ Melendez (Mets) | 16.6% |
| Byron Buxton (Twins) | 16.5% |
| Brett Baty (Mets) | 16.4% |
| Jake Burger (Rangers) | 16.4% |
Our analysis shows Soto leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 22.3% chance to go deep, followed by Michael Busch (20.6%) and Francisco Alvarez (20.4%).
Shohei Ohtani and Seiya Suzuki are among several other sluggers to rank inside the top 10.
Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR probability for Thursday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.
Thursday's home run picks [6/11/2026]
After running 10,000 simulations per matchup and evaluating key variables like weather and pitching form, Dimers Pro’s data highlights today’s top home run prop.
Brett Baty (Mets) to hit a home run
- Probability: 16.5%
- Odds: +830
- Edge: 5.7%
- Game: Cardinals vs. Mets (1:10 PM EDT)
- Pitching matchup: Hunter Dobbins
Ranked among today’s top 10 home run projections, New York slugger Brett Baty rates as a value play at +830 with DraftKings Sportsbook, showing a 5.7% edge.
Set to face Hunter Dobbins in tonight's Cardinals-Mets matchup, the data supports Baty as one of Thursday’s strongest value spots among available home run props.
Pro users have access to a total of 13 home run betting edges today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.
Conclusion
For June 11, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Juan Soto, Michael Busch and Francisco Alvarez projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Brett Baty who emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 5.7% edge at +830 odds.
For guidance on safer wagering habits, explore our Responsible Gambling resources.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
Advertiser disclosure
