Liberty vs. Wings prediction: Paige Bueckers projected to score 21 points in Thursday's WNBA game [7/16/2026]
Get New York Liberty vs Dallas Wings predictions for WNBA Thursday.
The Dallas Wings and New York Liberty will meet in the WNBA at College Park Center on Thursday, starting at 9:00 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven WNBA model projects the Wings as the most likely winner of the Liberty vs. Wings game.
The Wings, with star players such as Paige Bueckers, Azzi Fudd and Arike Ogunbowale, are set to take on the Liberty, whose lineup includes Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu and Jonquel Jones.
Bueckers, the star point guard for the Wings, is expected to shine with a projected 21 points and 1 three.
This article offers further insights into Thursday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.
Liberty vs. Wings prediction: Who will win and cover?
Our independent predictive model gives the Wings a 55.1% chance of defeating the Liberty.
According to our model, the Liberty (+1.5) have a 50.5% chance of covering the spread, while the 177.5-point over/under has a 57.1% chance of staying under,.
Liberty vs. Wings odds
We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Liberty | Wings |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +1.5 (+100) | -1.5 (-114) |
| Moneyline | +115 | -128 |
| Total | o177.5 (-105) | u177.5 (-108) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Liberty vs. Wings picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Liberty +1.5 | +100 |
| Moneyline | Wings | -128 |
| Total | Under 177.5 | -108 |
According to our best WNBA bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 177.5 total points.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Liberty vs. Wings player props
Looking for Liberty vs. Wings WNBA prop bets? We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at College Park Center.
Breanna Stewart is expected to lead the Liberty with 21 points, 8 rebounds and 4 assists, while Paige Bueckers is projected to have 21 points, 4 rebounds and 6 assists for the Wings.
Looking at the opening tip, the numbers point to Paige Bueckers striking first with a 15.2% probability.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.
Liberty prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Liberty are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breanna Stewart | 21 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 43 |
| Sabrina Ionescu | 19 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 41 |
| Jonquel Jones | 16 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 38 |
| Pauline Astier | 11 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 24 |
| Han Xu | 9 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 19 |
Wings prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Wings:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paige Bueckers | 21 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 40 |
| Azzi Fudd | 16 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 31 |
| A. Ogunbowale | 14 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 26 |
| Jessica Shepard | 13 | 11 | 6 | 0 | 37 |
| Maddy Siegrist | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 |
Liberty vs. Wings game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's matchup between the Wings and Liberty at College Park Center is scheduled to start at 9:00 PM ET.
- Who: New York Liberty vs. Dallas Wings
- Date: Thursday, July 16, 2026
- Time: 9:00 PM ET/6:00PM PT
- Venue: College Park Center
Conclusion
We predict the Wings, with a 55.1% win probability, will likely beat the Liberty in Thursday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
