Liberty vs. Lynx prediction: Why Minnesota is favored to win Saturday's WNBA matchup [7/11/2026]
Get New York Liberty vs Minnesota Lynx predictions for WNBA Saturday.
The Minnesota Lynx and New York Liberty are scheduled to meet in the WNBA at Target Center on Saturday, starting at 1:00 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' advanced WNBA model predicts the Lynx as the most likely winner of the Liberty vs. Lynx game.
The Lynx, with the likes of Natasha Howard, Kayla McBride and Olivia Miles, will face off against the Liberty, featuring Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu and Jonquel Jones.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Saturday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.
Liberty vs. Lynx prediction: Who will win and cover?
Our leading predictive model gives the Lynx a 66.7% chance of beating the Liberty.
According to our model, the Liberty (+4.5) have a 51.1% chance of covering the spread, while the 173.5-point over/under has a 58.3% chance of staying under,.
Liberty vs. Lynx odds
We have sourced the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Liberty | Lynx |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +4.5 (-102) | -4.5 (-110) |
| Moneyline | +165 | -178 |
| Total | o173.5 (-108) | u173.5 (-105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Liberty vs. Lynx picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Liberty +4.5 | -102 |
| Moneyline | Lynx | -178 |
| Total | Under 173.5 | -105 |
According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 173.5 total points.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Liberty vs. Lynx player props
Betting on Liberty vs. Lynx WNBA prop bets? We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Target Center.
Breanna Stewart is expected to lead the Liberty with 18 points, 7 rebounds and 3 assists, while Natasha Howard is projected to have 17 points, 9 rebounds and 3 assists for the Lynx.
Looking at the opening tip, the numbers point to Breanna Stewart striking first with a 14.5% probability.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.
Liberty prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Liberty are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breanna Stewart | 18 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 37 |
| Sabrina Ionescu | 17 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 36 |
| Jonquel Jones | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 32 |
| Pauline Astier | 11 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 24 |
| Marine Johannes | 8 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
Lynx prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Lynx:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natasha Howard | 17 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 39 |
| Kayla McBride | 17 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 31 |
| Olivia Miles | 15 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 34 |
| C. Williams | 14 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 32 |
| Nia Coffey | 9 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 26 |
Liberty vs. Lynx game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's action between the Lynx and Liberty at Target Center is scheduled to start at 1:00 PM ET.
- Who: New York Liberty vs. Minnesota Lynx
- Date: Saturday, July 11, 2026
- Time: 1:00 PM ET/10:00AM PT
- Venue: Target Center
Conclusion
We predict the Lynx, with a 66.7% win probability, will likely beat the Liberty in Saturday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Mac Douglass specializes in NFL previews for the NFC South and NFC East, MLB best bets, Formula 1 race previews, and professional tennis insights. Combining predictive simulations and data-driven sports analysis, Mac provides in-depth content to elevate the betting experience for sports fans.
