Mercury vs. Aces prediction: Las Vegas favored to win Saturday's WNBA game [7/11/2026]
Get Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces predictions for WNBA Saturday.
The Las Vegas Aces will square off with the Phoenix Mercury in WNBA action at Michelob ULTRA Arena on Saturday, beginning at 6:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven WNBA model projects the Aces as the most likely winner of the Mercury vs. Aces game.
The Aces, with the likes of A'ja Wilson, Jackie Young and Chelsea Gray, will face off against the Mercury, whose lineup includes Kahleah Copper, Alyssa Thomas and DeWanna Bonner.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Saturday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.
Mercury vs. Aces prediction: Who will win and cover?
Our famous predictive model gives the Aces a 76.0% chance of defeating the Mercury.
According to our model, the Mercury (+8.5) have a 55.0% chance of covering the spread, while the 169.5-point over/under has a 54.0% chance of staying under,.
Mercury vs. Aces odds
We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Mercury | Aces |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +8.5 (-102) | -8.5 (-110) |
| Moneyline | +330 | -350 |
| Total | o169.5 (-110) | u169.5 (-109) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Mercury vs. Aces picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Mercury +8.5 | bet_rivers_in-102 |
| Moneyline | Mercury | bet_rivers_in+330 |
| Total | Under 169.5 | -109 |
According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Mercury +8.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Mercury vs. Aces player props
Looking for Mercury vs. Aces WNBA prop bets? We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Michelob ULTRA Arena.
Kahleah Copper is expected to lead the Mercury with 19 points, 3 rebounds and 1 assists, while A'ja Wilson is projected to have 26 points, 10 rebounds and 3 assists for the Aces.
When evaluating the first basket market, Kahleah Copper is our top projected player to score first, backed by a 16% probability.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.
Mercury prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Mercury are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kahleah Copper | 19 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 28 |
| Alyssa Thomas | 15 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 45 |
| DeWanna Bonner | 10 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 23 |
| Valeriane Ayayi | 9 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 20 |
| Alexa Held | 9 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
Aces prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Aces:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A'ja Wilson | 26 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 53 |
| Jackie Young | 19 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 40 |
| Chelsea Gray | 12 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 34 |
| Jewell Loyd | 10 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 21 |
| NaLyssa Smith | 8 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 19 |
Mercury vs. Aces game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's game between the Aces and Mercury at Michelob ULTRA Arena is scheduled to start at 6:00 PM ET.
- Who: Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces
- Date: Saturday, July 11, 2026
- Time: 6:00 PM ET/3:00PM PT
- Venue: Michelob ULTRA Arena
Conclusion
We predict the Aces, with a 76.0% win probability, will likely beat the Mercury in Saturday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
