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Pebble Beach Pro-Am Golf parlay picks: Take these three golfers to win their H2H matchup
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Reviewed by Nick Slade
The PGA TOUR returns to Pebble Beach for the first signature event of the season and we've parlayed three golfers our model says are more likely to win their tournament matchup for +521 odds.
The PGA TOUR heads to one of the most iconic stops on the schedule this week for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, the season's first Signature Event featuring a $20 million purse, with an 80-player field and no cut as action runs from February 12-15. As always, Dimers has you covered with our best golf bets, full golf predictions and outright picks for who will lift the trophy on Sunday.
We’ve broken down the biggest betting storylines across Pebble Beach Golf Links and Spyglass Hill, and now it’s time to dive into some matchups angles with these +521 golf parlay picks, one of our favorite ways to attack elite-field events where everyone gets four guaranteed rounds.
Outright winners and Top-5, Top-10 and Top-20 markets typically draw the most attention, but head-to-head matchups can be just as profitable — especially at a course setup like Pebble Beach that emphasizes precision iron play, small greens and mistake avoidance rather than raw distance.
To make this market easier, Dimers uses an in-house head-to-head golf simulation tool that pits golfers directly against each other and projects who will finish higher, whether for Round 1 or across the full 72 holes for every tournament on the PGA TOUR.
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Parlay Picks at +521 Odds
To make this parlay, we'll be using the Head-to-Head matchups available at DraftKings Sportsbook. We'll enter both golfers into our H2H Predictor, select the Tournament-long option, and see which golfer gets the advantage for the weekend.
With a handy "Fair Odds" to "Percentages" toggle, you can always check to see if there's value in any given matchup, and with a Dimers Pro subscription, you can simulate unlimited matchups for every tournament.
Leg 1: Tommy Fleetwood to beat Cameron Young (-122)
This is one of the most one-sided matchups on the board according to the model, which gives Tommy Fleetwood a commanding 64.9% chance to win (plus another 4.7% to tie) compared to just 30.4% for Cameron Young.
Fleetwood’s statistical profile is almost tailor-made for Pebble Beach, ranking 2nd in Strokes Gained overall and 6th on approach last season. He also comes in with confidence after finally breaking through for a PGA TOUR win at the TOUR Championship and recorded eight top-10 finishes in 19 events last year.
Fleetwood’s course history is trending the right direction as well, improving his finish each time he’s played here and peaking with a T22 last season, while the projections give him better than a 65% chance to finish inside the Top 20. He's also one of our best bets outright in this tournament.
Cameron Young, meanwhile, is far more dependent on power off the tee, a skill that’s muted at Pebble. Though he's opened 2026 with solid outings of T22 and T41, he hasn’t shown comfort at this venue with finishes of solo 70th and 72nd and only two rounds under par across both appearances.
By fit and per the model, this matchup heavily favors Fleetwood and grades as one of the clearest edges in the tournament.
Leg 2: Robert Macintyre to beat Jake Knapp (-118)
The model gives Robert MacIntyre a solid edge in this matchup, projecting him at 54.5% to win with another 5.9% chance of a tie, while Jake Knapp sits at 39.6% and only about a 30% probability to crack the Top 20.
Despite sportsbooks listing the two at nearly identical odds, the probabilities show MacIntyre is priced right around fair value, whereas Knapp would need to be closer to +155 to accurately reflect his chances. MacIntyre also projects out as one of the better outright contenders in the field, sitting just outside the Top 10 in win probability.
Knapp does arrive in excellent form with finishes of T11, T5 and a solo 8th to start the year, but Pebble Beach is a very specific test.
The course minimizes distance and rewards control into small greens, which historically plays more into MacIntyre’s accurate, controlled approach game than Knapp’s power-centric profile.
Their results here have been similar in their lone appearance last year, (T33 for Knapp, T40 for Macintyre), but the Scotsman's skill set is a cleaner course fit, making him the preferred side in a matchup our model says is priced too closely.
Leg 3: Viktor Hovland to beat Maverick McNealy (-118)
Viktor Hovland profiles extremely well for Pebble Beach, a venue where small greens place a premium on elite ball-striking and precise iron play.
He’s already shown comfort on these types of setups with two top-25 finishes here in four appearances, and he arrives in strong form after a personal-best T10 at TPC Scottsdale.
Hovland has quietly put together seven straight top-25 finishes worldwide and the projections reflect that consistency with a 53.7% win probability in this matchup and nearly a 50% chance to finish inside the Top 20 for the week.
Maverick McNealy has started 2026 well overall, but Pebble Beach specifically hasn’t treated him kindly. His last four results at the event are T33, W/D, T39 and T40, and the model gives him just a 40.4% chance to beat Hovland.
Despite sportsbooks pricing this matchup close to even (-118 for Hovland vs. -112 for McNealy), the probabilities suggest Hovland is the properly favored side while McNealy would need to be closer to +150 to be fairly priced.
Between the course fit and model projections, Hovland is the clear value in this head-to-head.
+521 Pebble Beach Parlay Picks
To round up our parlay, we have these three matchups below, with our selected golfer predicted to win over the course of 72 holes, at odds of +521 on DraftKings Sportsbook:
| Tournament Matchup | Win % | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Tommy Fleetwood to beat Cameron Young | 64.9% | -122 |
| Robert Macintyre to beat Jake Knapp | 54.5% | -118 |
| Viktor Hovland to beat Maverick McNealy | 53.7% | -118 |
Dimers' Expert Golf Picks and Predictions for 2026 PGA TOUR
As well as being your best source for PGA golf predictions, Dimers also has the latest golf news, golf predictions for every game, weekly golf rankings, and golf matchup H2H tool.
- PGA Predictions: Our data-backed predictions for every tournament, including The Open and every major.
- Head-to-Head Predictor: Simulate any H2H tournament matchup between golfers
- Dimers' PGA Rankings: Our in-house approach to ranking the World's best golfers
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To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Nick Slade through our fact-checking process.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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