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PGA Golf Bets: Expert Picks, Best Odds, and Predictions for Hero World Challenge 2025
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Reviewed by Nick Slade
It's time for the Hero World Challenge at Albany Golf Course in the Bahamas and for one final time this season, Dave Garofolo highlights the best value bets for this weekend's tournament using the Dimers model.
Plenty of the game’s best are back in The Bahamas for the 2025 edition of the Hero World Challenge, the end-of-year showcase that delivers star power despite a small field, teeing off from Thursday, December 4 through Sunday, December 7.
The Tiger Woods-hosted event features a 20-player field headlined by World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, who arrives seeking to become the first golfer in tournament history to win three straight titles.
Scheffler returns to competition for the first time since the Ryder Cup, capping a season that featured six wins, two majors, and another wire-to-wire year as the world’s top-ranked player. He has been a machine at Albany Golf Course, finishing 2nd twice and then two consecutive wins over the last four years, tying the tournament scoring record during last year’s dominant six-shot victory over Tom Kim.
Three newcomers make their debut at this event after standout 2025 campaigns: J.J. Spaun, Chris Gotterup, and Andrew Novak, while past champions Hideki Matsuyama (2016) and Jordan Spieth (2014) join the field.
The event returns for the 10th time to Albany Golf Course, a lengthy par-72, 7,449-yard course that trades the rough for sand and features five par 5s, three of which are on the front nine. Strong putters and accurate drivers will see the most success as everyone looks to take down the heavy favorite, Scottie Scheffler.
MORE: Use Dimers' Head-to-Head Matchup Simulator
Hopefully you've tailed along this season or at least utilized our Dimers Pro PGA Predictions model which is on a hot run since the FedExCup Playoffs - most recently cashing +1400 Tommy Fleetwood winner at the TOUR Championship, hitting a Ben Griffin ladder and Scottie Scheffler win at the Procore Championship and predicting Xander Schauffele's win at +1100 at the Baycurrent classic, and again with Ben Griffin to win the World Wide Technology Championship.
Who Will Win the 2025 Hero World Challenge?
Below are the five most likely winners of the 2025 Hero World Challenge at Albany Golf Course this weekend.
These win predictions are the result of simulating the tournament over 10,000 times via our AI models, as well as each golfer's odds to finish Top 5, 10 and 20:
Scottie Scheffler - With a massive 44.7% win probability and top-10 finishes in nearly 94% of simulations, Scheffler enters as the overwhelming favorite and most reliable contender in the field, despite his first action in months.
J.J. Spaun - His 6% win probability paired with strong top-5 (33%) and top-10 (62%) probabilities make him the Dimers model's second-most likely contender if his tee-to-green game peaks.
Cameron Young - Finished the season with one of the hottest runs: 1st, 5th, 11th, T4 and T9 in his last five events and is our third-most likely winner this weekend.
Sam Burns - Statistically the best putter on the PGA TOUR, Burns lands in the top five win probabilities at 5.3%, looking to avenge his lone runner-up finish this season.
Robert MacIntyre - The Scotsman rounds out our top five win probabilities after a season that saw him bag six Top 10 finishes.
| Golfer | Win% | Top 5% | Top 10% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | 44.7% | 82.2% | 93.9% |
| J.J. Spaun | 6.0% | 33.4% | 61.7% |
| Cameron Young | 5.4% | 33.2% | 61.6% |
| Sam Burns | 5.3% | 32.2% | 60.5% |
| Robert MacIntyre | 5.0% | 31.2% | 60.4% |
MORE: Dimers' In-House Golf Rankings
Dimers' Hero World Challenge Winner Picks
We're looking at the golfers that our model has identified with a higher probability to win than that implied by the sportsbook odds.
We'll also highlight any standout prop and placement bets for these golfers if we find any appealing value hidden in the Dimers golf predictions.
Scottie Scheffler to Win (+140 on DraftKings)
It's a rare occurrence to ever see a golfer at odds shorter than +200 to win a tournament, but when you're the World No. 1 looking for a threepeat against just 19 other golfers, that's what you get.
Scheffler is a massive favorite to win this tournament at nearly 45%, yet, the Dimers model says he's still underpriced with his fair odds at +122.
He's won six times this year with two majors, and this is the smallest field he'll ever have to beat.
Available at +140 on multiple books, Scheffler remains a value play despite odds that may seem outright gross. If you're not going to back Scheffler, then consider the "winner without" market for the golfers below.
J.J. Spaun to Win (+1600 on FanDuel)
Spaun enters as the most likely winner behind Scheffler, and the numbers back it up.
Since missing the cut at the Scottish Open, he’s been on a sustained heater, posting a playoff runner-up, a solo sixth, and finishing T25 or better every time out.
Ranking 7th in strokes gained this season with elite top-five approach play, Spaun has paired solid putting with consistently sharp irons to build one of the most complete profiles in the field.
With a U.S. Open breakthrough win already in his pocket, plus three runner-up finishes, a third, and strong showings in FedExCup Fall (6th, T11), Spaun’s current form and pedigree make make him our second-most likely winner at 6.0%, which would give us fair odds at +1565.
Sam Burns to Win (+1700 on FanDuel)
Burns closed the year strong with finishes of T4, T7 and in the playoffs before a T13 in his lone Fall appearance, and he remains one of the field’s most dangerous.
He ranks below average on approach and around the greens, but being the #1 putter on the PGA TOUR underscores how explosive he can be when he starts rolling them in bunches, as its powered him to be ranked 11th overall in total strokes gained.
While he hasn’t fully solved this course, one top 10 in four starts, that elite putting should be huge in a no-cut birdie fest. If the irons show up even slightly above baseline, he can chase down Scheffler throughout the weekend.
His odds of +1700 are right around fair at our win probability of 5.4%.
Corey Conners to Win (+2800 on BetRivers)
Conners offers one the best ladder opportunity on the board, projecting at even money to finish top 10 with more than a 52% probability - the only such golfer in this field.
He’s coming off another excellent season that included seven top-10 finishes and a T3 at the TOUR Championship, supported by a well-rounded statistical profile: 23rd in driving accuracy, 39th on approach, and an improved 67th in putting.
Albany has only seen him once (16th in 2022), but his game fits the course’s demands extremely well with elite ball-striking, consistent fairways, and enough putting to stay in the mix.
At +2800, the outright win offers an appealing play with a fair price at +2900 based on our 3.3% win probability, but the real value lies in his Top 5 (+350 at 25.3%) and Top 10 (+100 at 52.6%) markets, where his high-floor game should shine.
Expert Golf Picks and Predictions for 2025 PGA TOUR
As well as being your best source for PGA golf predictions, Dimers Pros also have access to the latest golf news, golf predictions for every game, weekly golf rankings, and golf matchup H2H tool.
- PGA Predictions: Our data-backed predictions for every tournament, including every major.
- Head-to-Head Predictor: Simulate any H2H tournament matchup between golfers
- Dimers' PGA Rankings: Our in-house approach to ranking the World's best golfers
- PGA Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the PGA TOUR
Dimers and Responsible Gambling
Please remember to enjoy gambling responsibly. Responsible gambling means setting limits, staying in control, and understanding that luck is just part of the game. Make informed choices, set a budget, and know when to take a break. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.
To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Nick Slade through our fact-checking process.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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