Mercury vs. Aces prediction: Las Vegas favored to win Game 1 of 2025 WNBA Finals

The Las Vegas Aces will take on the Phoenix Mercury in WNBA Finals action at Michelob ULTRA Arena on Friday, commencing at 8:00PM ET.

Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven WNBA model predicts the Aces as the most likely winner of Game 1.

The Aces, led by A'ja Wilson, Jackie Young and Chelsea Gray, are set to take on the Mercury, who feature Satou Sabally, Kahleah Copper and Alyssa Thomas.

For further insights into Friday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks, visit our interactive Mercury vs. Aces predictions page.

Mercury vs. Aces prediction: Who will win Game 1?

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Friday's WNBA game between the Mercury and Aces 10,000 times as part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently gives the Aces a 52% chance of beating the Mercury in Game 1 of the series.

According to our model, the Mercury (+3.5) have a 59% chance of covering the spread, while the 162.5-point over/under has a 53% chance of going over.

Mercury vs. Aces Game 1 odds

We have sourced the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Mercury	Aces
Spread	+3.5 (-115)	-3.5 (-105)
Moneyline	+135	-160
Total	o162.5 (-120)	u162.5 (-105)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Make the most of your sports betting experience by exploring our comprehensive list of US betting apps, and the latest sportsbooks in 2025, ensuring you never miss a top new-user deal.

Mercury vs. Aces picks and best bets for Game 1

Our model's biggest edge in today's Mercury vs. Aces matchup is on the over/under.

Our expert predictions, matched against the latest odds, reveal the best WNBA picks and WNBA best bets for every game throughout the season.

Unlimited access to our complete suite of picks, including this one, is available via Dimers Pro.

Mercury vs. Aces Game 1 player props

WNBA player props are an exciting way to wager on Friday's Phoenix vs. Las Vegas matchup without necessarily betting on the outcome. We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Michelob ULTRA Arena.

Satou Sabally is expected to lead the Mercury with 20 points, 8 rebounds and 3 assists, while A'ja Wilson is projected to have 24 points, 12 rebounds and 3 assists for the Aces.

Dimers Pro users can access a full range of player props and projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and more, for every WNBA game this season.

Mercury vs. Aces Game 1 updates and essential details

Friday's Game 1 between the Aces and Mercury at Michelob ULTRA Arena is scheduled to begin at 8:00PM ET.

• Who: Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces
• Date: Friday, October 3, 2025
• Time: 8:00PM ET/5:00PM PT
• Venue: Michelob ULTRA Arena

Dimers' in-depth preview of Friday's Mercury vs. Aces matchup includes our prediction, picks and the latest betting odds.

Before making any Mercury vs. Aces picks, be sure to check out the latest WNBA predictions and betting advice from Dimers Pro.

Conclusion

We predict the Aces, with a 52% win probability, will likely beat the Mercury on Friday.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Mercury vs. Aces insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Note: Clicking links to our partners may earn us a referral fee. Learn about how we review products and services.

More on WNBA

Keep up with the latest WNBA betting news and WNBA parlay picks throughout the season.