Mercury vs. Aces prediction: Las Vegas favored to win Saturday's WNBA game [5/9/2026]

WNBA action continues on Saturday at 3:30 PM ET as the Phoenix Mercury lock horns with the Las Vegas Aces at T-Mobile Arena.

Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven WNBA model predicts the Aces as the most likely winner of the Mercury vs. Aces game.

The Aces, powered by A'ja Wilson, Jackie Young and Chelsea Gray, will face off against the Mercury, who feature Kahleah Copper, Alyssa Thomas and DeWanna Bonner.

This article offers further insights into Saturday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.

Mercury vs. Aces prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Saturday's WNBA game between the Mercury and Aces, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives the Aces a 73% chance of defeating the Mercury.

According to our model, the Mercury (+9.5) have a 61% chance of covering the spread, while the 168.5-point over/under has a 52% chance of staying under.

Mercury vs. Aces odds

We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Mercury	Aces
Spread	+9.5 (-104)	-9.5 (-110)
Moneyline	+360	-450
Total	o168.5 (-108)	u168.5 (-112)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Mercury vs. Aces picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Mercury +9.5	-104
Moneyline	Mercury	+360
Total	Under 168.5	-112

According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Mercury +9.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Mercury vs. Aces player props

WNBA prop bets are an enjoyable way to wager on the Mercury vs. Aces game without necessarily betting on the outcome. We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at T-Mobile Arena.

Kahleah Copper is expected to lead the Mercury with 18 points, 4 rebounds and 2 assists, while A'ja Wilson is projected to have 25 points, 12 rebounds and 3 assists for the Aces.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's WNBA first basket picks.

Mercury prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Mercury are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Kahleah Copper	18	4	2	2	29
Alyssa Thomas	17	10	10	0	51
DeWanna Bonner	14	8	2	2	31
Natasha Mack	8	10	2	0	30
Kiana Williams	8	2	2	2	17

Aces prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Aces:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
A'ja Wilson	25	12	3	0	53
Jackie Young	19	5	6	2	40
Chelsea Gray	11	4	6	1	33
Jewell Loyd	11	3	2	2	23
Chennedy Carter	10	2	2	0	17

Mercury vs. Aces game-day updates and essential details

Saturday's matchup between the Aces and Mercury at T-Mobile Arena is scheduled to commence at 3:30 PM ET.

• Who: Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces
• Date: Saturday, May 9, 2026
• Time: 3:30 PM ET/12:30PM PT
• Venue: T-Mobile Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Aces, with a 73% win probability, will likely beat the Mercury in Saturday's WNBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.