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Mercury vs. Aces prediction: Las Vegas favored to win Game 2 of 2025 WNBA Finals
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces predictions for WNBA Sunday.
The Las Vegas Aces will face the Phoenix Mercury, in what is expected to be a close WNBA game, at Michelob ULTRA Arena on Sunday, commencing at 3:00PM ET.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced WNBA model predicts the Aces as the most likely winner of Game 2.
"Using the most recent data, our experts ran 10,000 simulations of Sunday's Mercury-Aces game," said Dimers' Chief Content Officer, Nick Slade.
"After accounting for recent updates and other variables, our prediction shows the Aces with a win probability of 53%, while the Mercury have 47%."
The Aces, led by A'ja Wilson, Jackie Young and Chelsea Gray, are set to take on the Mercury, featuring Satou Sabally, Kahleah Copper and Alyssa Thomas.
For further insights into Sunday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks, visit our interactive Mercury vs. Aces predictions page.
Mercury vs. Aces prediction: Who will win Game 2?
Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's WNBA game between the Mercury and Aces 10,000 times as part of our WNBA predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Aces a 53% chance of defeating the Mercury in Game 2 of the series.
According to our model, the Mercury (+3.5) have a 58% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 162.5 points has a 56% chance of going over.
Mercury vs. Aces Game 2 odds
We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Mercury | Aces |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +3.5 (-125) | -3.5 (-105) |
| Moneyline | +125 | -115 |
| Total | o162.5 (-114) | u162.5 (-114) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
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Mercury vs. Aces picks and best bets for Game 2
Our model's biggest edge in today's Mercury vs. Aces matchup is on the spread.
Our expert predictions, aligned with the latest odds, reveal the best WNBA picks and WNBA best bets for every game throughout the season.
Unlimited access to our complete set of picks, including this one, is available via Dimers Pro.
Mercury vs. Aces Game 2 player props
WNBA player props are an enjoyable way to wager on Sunday's Phoenix vs. Las Vegas matchup without necessarily betting on the outcome. We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Michelob ULTRA Arena.
Satou Sabally is expected to lead the Mercury with 20 points, 8 rebounds and 3 assists, while A'ja Wilson is projected to have 24 points, 12 rebounds and 3 assists for the Aces.
Dimers Pro users can access a full range of player props and projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and more, for every WNBA game this season.
Mercury vs. Aces Game 2 updates and essential details
Sunday's Game 2 between the Aces and Mercury at Michelob ULTRA Arena is scheduled to commence at 3:00PM ET.
- Who: Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces
- Date: Sunday, October 5, 2025
- Time: 3:00PM ET/12:00PM PT
- Venue: Michelob ULTRA Arena
Dimers' full preview of Sunday's Mercury vs. Aces matchup includes our prediction, picks and the latest betting odds.
Before making any Mercury vs. Aces picks, be sure to check out the latest WNBA predictions and betting advice from Dimers Pro.
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Conclusion
We predict the Aces, with a 53% win probability, will likely beat the Mercury on Sunday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Mercury vs. Aces insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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