Sony Open in Hawaii predictions, picks and course preview at Waialae Country Club

The Sony Open in Hawaii opens the 2026 PGA TOUR season, teeing off from Thursday, January 15 - Sunday, January 18, returning once again to its long-time home at Waialae Country Club in Honolulu. It’s the only course the tournament has ever known in 61 years, giving returning players a clear familiarity edge to start the year.

Waialae is a par 70 that stretches just 7,044 yards, but it plays longer than the scorecard suggests and ranks among the longest regular host venues on TOUR. 

Despite the modest yardage, scoring is typically low here. The winning score has averaged -19 over the past five editions, and the course has played to a scoring average below 69 in each of those tournaments, making it one of the easier stops on the schedule without becoming a pure birdie fest.

The greens average roughly 7,100 square feet, on the large side for a par-70 setup, while the rough can be punishing for missed fairways.

History matters here. Only one rookie or tournament debutant has won at Waialae since the late 1970s, Russell Henley in 2013, underscoring how valuable course knowledge can be. That trend will be tested again by a 120-player field that includes 22 first-time TOUR members, alongside elite talent such as Russell Henley, J.J. Spaun, Robert MacIntyre, Ben Griffin, and defending champion Nick Taylor.

Key stats to watch this week include Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Putting (due to the expansive greens), and Driving Accuracy over raw distance, as Waialae rewards precision and patience far more than power.

MORE: Use Dimers' Head-to-Head Matchup Simulator

The Dimers Pro golf predictions ended last season on an elite run, accurately identifying Tommy Fleetwood's first win at the TOUR Championship, hitting a Ben Griffin ladder and Scottie Scheffler win at the Procore Championship, correctly predicting Xander Schauffele's +1100 win at the Baycurrent classic, and Ben Griffin to win the World Wide Technology Championship.

Who Will Win the 2026 Sony Open in Hawaii?

Below are the five most likely winners of the 2026 Sony Open in Hawaii at Waialae Country Club this week.

Our win predictions are the result of simulating the tournament over 10,000 times via our AI models, as well as each golfer's odds to finish Top 5, 10 and 20:

Ben Griffin - Griffin owns the highest win probability in the field at 11.9% and finished the 2025 season in peak form, highlighted by a late-year victory and multiple high-end results. With top-10 and top-20 probabilities north of 50% and 70% respectively, he enters this week as the most reliable blend of upside and consistency.

Russell Henley - Henley closed out 2025 with another steady stretch of strong finishes, reinforcing his reputation as one of the TOUR’s most dependable ball-strikers. His 8.5% win probability and 65.9% top-20 rate reflect a player who rarely puts himself out of contention.

J.J. Spaun - Spaun’s breakout 2025 season carried through to the finish line, capped by elite closing results that cemented his place among the TOUR’s upper tier. He brings a 7.9% win probability and over a 40% chance at a top-10, making him a threat to contend again.

Harry Hall - Hall wrapped up 2025 with a productive run that showcased his putting-driven upside, even as his schedule thinned late in the year. His probabilities point to a strong chance to hang around the leaderboard, with meaningful top-10 potential if the putter heats up.

Robert MacIntyre - MacIntyre ended the 2025 season on a high note with a late runner-up and multiple top-20 finishes, continuing his steady climb on the world stage. While his win probability sits just under 5%, his balanced profile gives him legitimate top-20 and top-10 upside in this field.

MORE: Dimers' In-House Golf Rankings

Dimers' Sony Open in Hawaii Best Bets

For each tournament, we look at the golfers our model has identified with a higher probability to win than what is implied by the sportsbook odds. 

We'll also highlight any standout prop and placement bets for these golfers if we find any appealing value hidden in the Dimers golf predictions.

Ben Griffin to Win (+1900 on FanDuel)

Ben Griffin enters the Sony Open riding elite form after closing out his third win of 2025 at the World Wide Technology Championship in last season's FedExCup Fall run.

He's the Dimers model's favorite to win the tournament and the only golfer with over a 10% probability to win, offering fair odds of +740 while he's more than double that at FanDuel.

Waialae has been a perfect fit in Griffin's three tries, with all 12 career rounds at par or better, and he leads the entire field in true total strokes gained over the past six months, profiling as clear contender in the season opener.

Griffin gets an edge in all three placement markets of top 20, Top 10 and top 5 as well for an ideal ladder play.

J.J. Spaun to Win (+1800 on DraftKings)

Following a breakout 2025 that saw him capture the US Open title, J.J. Spaun returns to Waialae with unfinished business.

Last year at Waialae, he finished T3 after holding the outright lead entering the final round, and he also logged a solid T12 here in 2023, confirming his comfort on the layout and reinforcing the fact that familiarity rules over all here.

Spaun lands third in the Dimers projections with a 7.9% probability to win, with his fair odds of +1165 well below his best price of +1800.

After seven Top 10s last year, Spaun’s consistent ball-striking and experience in Hawaii keep him firmly in contention once again, also offering ladder value in his placements.

Harry Hall to Win (+3500 on FanDuel)

Englishman Harry Hall comes in well-rested after a busy 2025 campaign, but also three months away from competition.

He gets the fourth-best probability to win at 5.1% for fair odds of +1860, a strong edge at his best price of +3500, which implies just 2.8%.

He'll be making his fourth consecutive appearance at the Sony Open after contending last year with a top-10 finish (best in three tries), and currently ranks seventh in the field in true total strokes gained over the past six months, while sitting second in true strokes-gained putting, a strong fit for this course.

If Hall picks up where he left off in the fall, when he finished outside the Top 20 in just three of his final 10 events, his putting upside makes him a dangerous contender on Waialae’s large greens.

Don't overlook his chances to place either - he's +150 for a Top 20 finish with a probability of nearly 55%.

Corey Conners (+3300 on BetMGM)

The Canadian sits just outside our Top 5 as Corey Conners prepares for his eighth appearance at Waialae.

At 4.4% win probability from the Dimers model, his fair odds sit around +2170 for great value and setting himself up for a bounceback at venue he's had success at more often than not.

He missed the cut in 2025 which was more indicative of an uneven season than a poor fit for Waialae, as he’s previously finished T12 twice, along with a T11 and a T3 in his six other appearances.

Statistically, he remains a strong course match, ranking 39th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 24th off the tee with above-average driving accuracy. He also closed last season in excellent form, highlighted by a T4 at the TOUR Championship.

Best Props at the Sony Open in Hawaii

With plenty of value in the top contenders, we're highlighting a couple other way to use the Dimers data.

Top 20 Parlay

Three golfers get at least a 60% probability for a Top 20 finish - Ben Griffin, Russell Henley and J.J. Spaun. Each one carries standalone value, with Spaun even drawing plus-money odds.

All three have displayed great results here and in the past, and a three-leg parlay for all three to finish Top 20 pays out at +550 odds on DraftKings.

Best H2H Matchup

The Dimers Head-to-Head Predictor tool lets you simulate any matchup between any two golfers to see how they compare over the course of the first round or the entire tournament.

Simulating our top two projected golfers against one another, Ben Griffin vs. Russell Henley, reveals a substantial standalone advantage for Griffin (+115) over Henley (-145) over the course of the tournament.

Expert Golf Picks and Predictions for 2026 PGA TOUR

As well as being your best source for PGA golf predictions, Dimers Pros also have access to the latest golf news, golf predictions for every game, weekly golf rankings, and golf matchup H2H tool.

• PGA Predictions: Our data-backed predictions for every tournament, including every major.
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• Dimers' PGA Rankings: Our in-house approach to ranking the World's best golfers
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