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Rays vs. Red Sox prediction: Boston favored to win Thursday's MLB matchup [5/7/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox predictions for MLB Thursday.
The Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays will meet in MLB action at Fenway Park on Thursday, starting at 7:10 PM ET.
Jake Bennett (1-0, 1.80 ERA) will start for the Red Sox, pitting him against Griffin Jax (1-2, 5.14 ERA) for the Rays.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced MLB model gives the Red Sox a slight edge with a 52% win probability over the Rays.
This article offers a closer look at Thursday's Rays vs. Red Sox matchup, including best bets and picks.
Rays vs. Red Sox prediction: Who will win?
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Thursday's MLB game between the Rays and Red Sox, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Red Sox a 52% chance of defeating the Rays.
According to our model, the 8.5-run over/under has a 53% chance of going over.
Rays vs. Red Sox odds [5/7/2026]
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Rays | Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +100 | -110 |
| Total | o8.5 (-108) | u8.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Rays vs. Red Sox picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Red Sox | -110 |
| Total | Over 8.5 | -108 |
According to our best MLB bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 8.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Rays vs. Red Sox game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's MLB matchup between the Red Sox and Rays at Fenway Park is scheduled to begin at 7:10 PM ET.
- Who: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox
- Date: Thursday, May 7, 2026
- Time: 7:10 PM ET/4:10PM PT
- Venue: Fenway Park
Conclusion
We predict the Red Sox, with a 52% win probability, will likely beat the Rays in Thursday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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