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The Genesis Invitational PGA predictions, picks and course preview in return to Riviera Country Club
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Reviewed by Nick Slade
The 2026 PGA TOUR season moves to the Genesis Invitational, returning to its traditional home at Riviera Country Club, and we have the best value bets identified by the Dimers golf model.
The PGA TOUR heads back to one of its most iconic stops this week as The Genesis Invitational returns to Riviera Country Club in Pacific Palisades, California. After last year’s relocation to Torrey Pines due to the Los Angeles-area wildfires, Riviera resumes its traditional place on the schedule as the second Signature Event of the season.
A $20 million purse and a limited 72-player field are on tap, this is the first of three signature events with a cut, this one after 36 holes to the top 50 and ties, plus anyone within 10 shots of the lead. The winner will also collect 700 FedExCup points in what is one of the most important early checkpoints of the season.
Riviera is a par-71 measuring roughly 7,380 yards and serves as a preview of the 2028 Summer Olympics golf venue and the course is famous for testing every part of a player’s skillset. It’s a demanding but fair design, rewarding precise ball-striking rather than penalizing players with gimmicks.
Although distance certainly helps at Riviera, history shows the tournament is usually decided by approach play and short-game execution. Around-the-green creativity is critical, and course familiarity also matters, with eight of the last 11 winners had made at least six previous starts here before capturing a title.
Several storylines add intrigue to this year’s return. Ludvig Åberg enters as the defending Genesis Invitational champion, though his victory came at Torrey Pines and his start to 2026 has been uneven, including a withdrawal, a missed cut, and a T37. Meanwhile, Hideki Matsuyama, the most recent winner at Riviera in 2024, arrives in excellent form, with no finishes outside T13 this season, while posting eight consecutive rounds under 70.
With eight of the world’s top 20 players and 41 of the top 50 in attendance, the TOUR’s homecoming to Riviera should once again deliver a championship-level test worthy of one of golf’s most respected venues.
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The Dimers Pro golf predictions ended last season on an elite run, headlined by Tommy Fleetwood's first win at the TOUR Championship. This season, we've accurately identified value on Scottie Scheffler to win and Russell Henley to place Top 10 and Top 20 at the American Express, the live value on Justin Rose to win the Farmers Insurance Open at +500 and big edges on Tommy Fleetwood at Pebble Beach just last week.
2026 Genesis Invitational Preview
Date: February 19-22, 2026
Location: Pacific Palisades, CA
Course: Riviera Country Club
Par: 71 / 7,383 yards
Purse: $20 million
Previous winner: Ludvig Aberg 2025 (-12, 276 at Torrey Pines), Hideki Matsuyama 2024 (-17, 267 at Riviera)
Who Will Win the 2026 Genesis Invitational?
Below are the five most likely winners of the 2026 Genesis Invitational this week.
Our win predictions are the result of simulating the tournament over 10,000 times via our AI models, as well as each golfer's odds to finish Top 5, 10 and 20:
Scottie Scheffler - Once again proving he is never truly out of it, Scheffler has put on two comebacks this season and has not finished outside the Top 5 in three events. He is the man to beat any time he tees it up, with over a 27% probability of winning this week.
Tommy Fleetwood - A great season debut for the Englishman who finally grabbed up a PGA TOUR victory last season, and picked up right where he left off in 2025, has improved in each Genesis appearance.
Rory McIlroy - Despite stumbling to the tune of three double bogeys and a triple, McIlroy managed a T14 in his 2026 debut at Pebble Beach, returning now to a course he's managed six finishes of T20 or better in 9 tries.
Russell Henley - Hasn't finished worse than T19 this season and has seen mixed results at Riviera, but Henley continues to make his case as a top-tier contender.
Ben Griffin - Looking for his best finish since his season-opening T19, Griffin will have to shake off some dips in form and get back to the game he flashed as a three-time winner on the TOUR last season.
| Golfer | Win% | Top 5% | Top 10% | Top 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | 27.4% | 59.1% | 74.1% | 86.4% |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 8.5% | 32.1% | 49.1% | 68.9% |
| Rory McIlroy | 4.8% | 22.5% | 37.4% | 58.9% |
| Russell Henley | 4.1% | 18.7% | 32.8% | 53.1% |
| Ben Griffin | 3.0% | 15.8% | 28.6% | 49.2% |
MORE: Dimers' In-House Golf Rankings
Dimers' Genesis Invitational Best Bets
For each tournament, we look at the golfers our model has identified with a higher probability to win than what is implied by the sportsbook odds.
We'll also highlight any standout prop and placement bets for other golfers if we find any appealing value hidden in the Dimers golf predictions.
Scottie Scheffler to Win (+340 on FanDuel)
Win probability: 27.4%
Dimers' fair odds: +265
The World No. 1 once again reminded everyone why he’s the measuring stick in professional golf, storming back on Sunday with two eagles on the front nine and three on the day in another ridiculous late charge.
Even when he appears out of contention, he rarely actually is, and that alone makes him the player to beat in any field he enters. The model gives him a 27.3% win probability (fair odds +265), so this is actually one of the more playable outright prices we’ve seen on him in quite some time.
Riviera has also quietly become one of his most reliable venues, with finishes of T7, T12, T10 and T3 across his last four appearances.
There’s also value in the placement markets with his Top 5 odds around -116, a rare price for Scheffler.
Tommy Fleetwood to Win (+2200 on DraftKings)
Win probability: 8.5%
Dimers' fair odds: +1075
Fleetwood continues to profile as one of the strongest plays in the field. The model gives him an 8.5% chance to win, the second-highest in the tournament, yet the market is still pricing him more like a fringe Top 5 contender.
His fair odds sit around +1075, meaning the available number is significantly longer than it should be at double the odds.
Course history only strengthens the case. Fleetwood has improved in every Genesis Invitational appearance, finishing T37, T28, T20, T10 and T5 (Torrey Pines) in his five starts, and he enters in strong form after ending last season well and immediately contending early this year.
He ranked sixth on TOUR in approach play and 23rd in scrambling last season, a combination that fits Riviera’s demands perfectly. With his familiarity and continued progression here, another step forward, and possibly a win, would not be surprising.
Russell Henley to Win (+3000 on FanDuel)
Win probability: 4.1%
Dimers' fair odds: +2340
Henley’s results don’t fully reflect how well he has actually played to start the season.
Through three events, he’s posted finishes of T19, T8 and T19 and has only two rounds over 70 in 12 attempts. A breakthrough performance feels close, especially at a venue like Riviera that rewards precision more than raw power.
His well-rounded profile, strong iron play, reliable short game and consistent scoring, fits the course even though he's not known for his power.
The Dimers model gives him a 4.1% win probability and shows positive value across Top 20, Top 10 and Top 5 markets, making him one of the more appealing mid-tier contenders in the field, despite his mixed results at this course in the past.
Ben Griffin to Win (+4500 on BetMGM)
Win probability: 3.0%
Dimers' fair odds: +3230
Griffin nearly made a serious run last weekend before a difficult final round, and his 3.0% win probability suggests some modest outright value with a fair price closer to +3200.
The bigger appeal, however, comes in placement markets, where he shows a clear edge for Top 20 (49.2% at +140) and Top 10 (28.6% at +360) finishes.
His slow start this season has been driven by approach play slipping below his usual standard. While he remains accurate off the tee, his lack of distance has limited his efficiency, a challenge at Riviera, where second-shot performance is critical.
Still, he showed improvement during the third round last week, and if the irons continue trending upward, his overall game is strong enough to outperform his current results.
More Ways to Bet on the Genesis Invitational
Look out for more golf content from the Dimers model for this weekend!
Dimers' Golf Resources for 2026 PGA TOUR
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- PGA Predictions: Our data-backed predictions for every tournament, including every major.
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- Dimers' PGA Rankings: Our in-house approach to ranking the World's best golfers
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To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Nick Slade through our fact-checking process.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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