Three data-backed ways to bet on WNBA Finals Game 4 as Mercury face elimination by Aces

The Phoenix Mercury host the Las Vegas Aces in Game 4 of the WNBA Finals with hopes of avoiding a sweep in the first-ever seven-game WNBA Finals

The games have been close, narrowly missing overtime in both Games 1 and 3, but the Aces have been the better opponent each time.

No matter who wins, our model ha already delivered big-time this WNBA season as both the Aces (+1300) and Mercury (+1600) were previously identified as WNBA Championship value plays by the Dimers model. That means users who tailed both futures bets are already getting a guaranteed winner from this series.

With potentially the final game of the season upon us, we're combining all of our WNBA tools on Dimers.com to find our best betting opportunities in Game 4.

By combining our WNBA Projections, Best WNBA Props and WNBA Player Trends, there are a number of betting angles in this must-win game for Phoenix.

Bet Alyssa Thomas to record a Triple Double (+310 on DraftKings)

Twice in this series Alyssa Thomas has come up one assist shy of a triple double twice in this series and it's no surprise they were both the most competitive games so far.

Thomas is the league's all-time leader in triple doubles as she can impact the game in every facet - crashing boards, setting up her teammates, all while pacing the team in scoring.

Tonight, she'll have even more on her shoulders as the Mercury will be without Satou Sabally who has been a key scorer for the Mercury.

While this could impact her ability to tally assists, it likely means she'll just be more involved across the board.

The Dimers model projects Thomas for 18.5 Points, 10.9 Rebounds and 10.8 Assists in Game 4, putting her over the triple double mark with everything on the line.

Bet Jackie Young Over 17.5 Points (+00 on DraftKings)

The unheralded star of the Aces in this series, Jackie Young has scored 30+ points twice in crucial games in these playoffs and projects as a top scorer in Game 4.

Young rebounded form an uncharacteristic shooting performance in Game 1 with 21 and 32 point in Games 2 and 3, and she's gone over this number in 8 of 11 playoff games.

The Mercury will desperately try to slow down A'ja Wilson and the Dimers model projects Young with a 20.5-point output in Game 4, not only putting her over the line of 17.5 on the sportsbooks, but also putting 20+ in play at +154 odds on DraftKings.

Bet A'ja Wilson to get 13+ Rebounds (+154 on DraftKings)

Fresh off back-to-back 14-rebound games, A'ja Wilson cashed multiple plus-money rebound lines that we called out in Game 3.

In Game 4, she projects for 13.0 rebounds per our model, continuing her trend of dominating the glass vs. the Mercury this year. In six games vs. Phoenix including the regular season, she has 13+ boards five times.

Wilson's line is at 11.5 rebounds, with plus money odds on the over, though you can also bet on her to get 13+ at even better odds of +154 and backed by our projections.

Without Sabally, the Mercury will be missing a key rebounder, opening the door for extra boards to Wilson.

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