Blue Jays vs. Padres prediction: Toronto favored to win Sunday's MLB matchup [7/12/2026]
Get Toronto Blue Jays vs San Diego Padres predictions for MLB Sunday.
The San Diego Padres will take on the Toronto Blue Jays, in what is expected to be a tight MLB game, at Petco Park on Sunday, starting at 4:10 PM ET.
The Padres will send Germán Márquez (4-2, 5.02 ERA) to the mound, up against Kevin Gausman (4-8, 4.32 ERA) for the Blue Jays.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' advanced MLB model gives the Blue Jays a slight edge with a 53.6% win probability over the Padres.
This article offers a closer look at Sunday's Blue Jays vs. Padres matchup, including best bets and picks.
Blue Jays vs. Padres prediction: Who will win and cover?
Our leading predictive model gives the Blue Jays a 53.6% chance of beating the Padres.
According to our model, the Padres (+1.5) have a 59.4% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 8.5 runs has a 51.5% chance of going over,.
Blue Jays vs. Padres odds [7/12/2026]
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Blue Jays | Padres |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | -1.5 (+144) | +1.5 (-141) |
| Moneyline | -117 | +115 |
| Total | o8.5 (+104) | u8.5 (-108) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Blue Jays vs. Padres picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Padres +1.5 | novig-141 |
| Moneyline | Padres | novig+115 |
| Total | Over 8.5 | novig+104 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 8.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Blue Jays vs. Padres game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's MLB action between the Padres and Blue Jays at Petco Park is scheduled to begin at 4:10 PM ET.
- Who: Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Diego Padres
- Date: Sunday, July 12, 2026
- Time: 4:10 PM ET/1:10PM PT
- Venue: Petco Park
Conclusion
We predict the Blue Jays, with a 53.6% win probability, will likely beat the Padres in Sunday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Continue reading with Dimers Pro
Join now to unlock this article and get full access to our predictions and betting tools. Cancel anytime.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
