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Valspar Championship predictions: Golf picks and best bets
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Reviewed by Nick Slade
The 2026 PGA TOUR wraps up the Florida swing with the Valspar Championship and we reveal the best value bets as identified by the Dimers golf model after correctly picking Cameron Young last week at THE PLAYERS.
The Dimers golf predictions are back for the Valspar Championship, teeing off on Thursday, March 19 at Innisbrook Resort in Palm Harbor, FL and after we correctly identified Cameron Young to win THE PLAYERS we've got the latest best golf bets to make at the final stop of the PGA TOUR's Florida swing.
This week's action takes place at the formidable Copperhead Course at Innisbrook, the lone host of all 25 editions of the Valspar Championship, with 9 of the world's Top 25 ranked golfers entering the field, headlined by Xander Schauffele and last year's champion, Viktor Hovland, both featured in our Valspar Championship Power Rankings.
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The Dimers model is packed with insights for this week's tournament and we're once again breaking down the best golf picks based on the value identified by the Dimers golf model.
PGA Valspar Championship tournament preview
- Date: March 19-22, 2026
- Location: Palm Harbor, FL
- Course: Innisbrook Resort, Copperhead Course
- Par: 71 / 7,352 yards
- Purse: $9.1 million
- 2025 winner: Viktor Hovland (-11)
Based on data from the Dimers golf model, below are the five most likely winners of the Valspar Championship this week.
Our win predictions are the result of simulating the tournament over 10,000 times via our AI models, as well as each golfer's odds to finish Top 5, 10 and 20:
1. Xander Schauffele - Schauffele heads in as the betting favorite after a strong run of form, most recently finishing solo third at THE PLAYERs, his second Top 10 in his past three events.
2. Matt Fitzpatrick - Fresh off coming agonizingly close to a win at THE PLAYERS, Fitzpatrick is rolling right now and arrives in Palm Harbor looking to bounce back.
3. Akshay Bhatia - A 2026 Signature Event winner at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, Bhatia backed that up with a T-13 last week, keeping his hot season going heading into Copperhead.
4. Viktor Hovland - The defending champion continues to trend in the right direction, posting back-to-back T-13 finishes at the Arnold Palmer and THE PLAYERS.
5. Jacob Bridgeman – Bridgeman is on one of the most remarkable early-season runs in recent memory with seven consecutive top-20 finishes including a win at the Genesis Invitational and a T-5 last week, earing Dimers' boosted win honors this weekend.
| Golfer | Win% | Top 5% | Top 10% | Top 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Xander Schauffele | 9.7% | 29.7% | 44.5% | 61.4% |
| 2. Matt Fitzpatrick | 7.2% | 25.4% | 39.41% | 56.2% |
| 3. Akshay Bhatia | 6.0% | 21.4% | 34.2% | 51.9% |
| 4. Viktor Hovland | 5.5% | 20.3% | 32.6% | 49.9% |
| 5. Jacob Bridgeman | 5.3% | 19.6% | 31.8% | 49.1% |
Who will win the Valspar Championship?
For each tournament, we look at the golfers our model has identified with a higher probability to win than what is implied by the sportsbook odds.
We'll also highlight any standout prop and placement bets for other golfers if we find any appealing value hidden in the Dimers golf predictions.
To get the most out of the Valspar Championship, check out Dimers' full tournament predictions and compare with course history and other analytics to find an edge.
Xander Schauffele to win (+1100 on Bet365)
Win probability: 9.7%
Dimers' fair odds: +930 and above
With the big guns like Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and even Tommy Fleetwood all out this week, Schauffele steps in as the tournament favorite, and the model says he's worth backing even at shorter odds than usual.
After a shaky start to the year that included a cut and a T41, he's rattled off four straight Top 25s, including two Top 10s.
At THE PLAYERS, he looked like he was about to run away with it before a third-round 74 derailed him sand he still salvaged solo third.
His Copperhead record is excellent with a pair of T12s and a T5 in three appearances, with just two rounds over par in 12 total.
Getting a legitimate favorite at fair odds inside 10/1 with a positive edge doesn't happen often when it isn't Scottie Scheffler in the front, and there's also strong value on a Top 10 play here at 44.5% and +155 odds.
Matt Fitzpatrick to win (+1600 on Bet365)
Win probability: 7.2%
Dimers' fair odds: +1290 and above
Fitzpatrick nearly complicated things for us at THE PLAYERS last week, with a chance to sink a putt and force a playoff before missing by inches, clearing the way for Cameron Young's tap-in win.
Now one of few top-ranked golfers competing in this one, the Englishman has been sharp in 2026 with two Top 10s and two additional Top 25s.
His record at Copperhead is a bit of a mixed bag, two missed cuts alongside a T5, so he's shown he can go either direction at this venue.
Still with Dimers model value identified at a 7.2% win probability, the underlying numbers are encouraging as he ranks 15th in approach play with strong overall scoring metrics.
Akshay Bhatia to win (+2000 on BetMGM)
Win probability: 6.0%
Dimers' fair odds: +1565 and above
What looked like a rough start to the season after back-to-back missed cuts to open the year has turned into something special for Bhatia.
Since then, he hasn't finished worse than T16, with three Top 10s, two Top 5s, and a playoff win at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, one we caught at +1200 after his strong start to that event.
His Copperhead history mirrors this season's arc with two missed cuts in his first two appearances, followed by a T17 last year.
His statistical profile is elite: 9th in approach play, 10th in putting, 26th in scrambling, and 27th in bogey avoidance.
His only real weakness is off the tee, where he grades out slightly below field average, but that matters less at a course where driver is not always the play
Our model gives him a 52% shot at a Top 20 with plus money odds, making him our best ladder option of the week, and he features in our boosted Top 20 parlay at bet365 sportsbook.
Jacob Bridgeman to win (boosted to +2500 on Bet365)
Win probability: 5.3%
Dimers' fair odds: +1790 and above
Bridgeman is having a flat-out ridiculous season.
He's No. 1 in FedExCup points, has a win at the Genesis Invitational, two other Top 5s, and four additional Top 20s, and he hasn't finished worse than T18 all year.
He also leads the field in strokes gained putting, which is a good complementary weapon as any at Copperhead.
Our model has him fair as short as +1790, and we're getting an exclusive Dimers boost over at bet365 sportsbook, turning him from a slim value at +2200 to a genuine edge at +2500.
He cracks our Top 5 overall of the week and sets up for another competitive outing.
This week's Dimers golf boost at bet365 sportsbook featuring Jacob Bridgeman.
The Valspar Championship longshot bets
Beyond the Dimers model favorites, several golfers have an edge at odds of more than 50/1, setting up longshot bets for outright wins or Top 20 placements at good plus-money value.
Patrick Rodgers to win (+7500 on FanDuel)
Win probability: 1.8%
Dimers' fair odds: +5455 and above
Rodgers just turned in his best result of the season since his solo third at the Sony Open to start the year.
Though he has a few finishes outside the Top 305, he's made every cut and shown he can compete on difficult courses with strong fields.
He's a Top 20 probability this week which points to upside, but his 1.8% win probability alongside +7500 odds stands out significantly, as the other golfers in his range sit at odds between +3000 and +7000.
He isn't a perfect fit for the course, but has enough tools to compete with a strong edge from our model.
Dimers' golf resources for 2026 PGA TOUR
As well as being your best source for PGA golf predictions, Dimers Pros also have access to the latest golf news, golf predictions for every game, weekly golf rankings, and golf matchup H2H tool.
- PGA Predictions: Our data-backed predictions for every tournament, including every major.
- Head-to-Head Predictor: Simulate any H2H tournament matchup between golfers
- Dimers' PGA Rankings: Our in-house approach to ranking the World's best golfers
- PGA Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the PGA TOUR
The Dimers Pro golf predictions ended last season on an elite run, headlined by Tommy Fleetwood's first win at the TOUR Championship.
This season, we've accurately identified the live value on Justin Rose to win the Farmers Insurance Open at +500 and big edges on Tommy Fleetwood at Pebble Beach and our boosted pick of Cameron Young to win THE PLAYERS.
Dimers and responsible gambling
Please remember to enjoy gambling responsibly. Responsible gambling means setting limits, staying in control, and understanding that luck is just part of the game. Make informed choices, set a budget, and know when to take a break. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.
To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Nick Slade through our fact-checking process.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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