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WM Phoenix Open PGA predictions, picks and course preview at TPC Scottsdale
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Reviewed by Nick Slade
The 2026 PGA TOUR season heads inland to TPC Scottsdale in Arizona for the WM Phoenix Open and we have the best value bets identified by the Dimers golf model.
The PGA TOUR heads to the desert this week for the WM Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale, commonly referred to as "The People's Open."
At just over 7,260 yards with oversized greens pushing 7,000 square feet, this is a track where simply hitting greens isn’t enough, putting an even greater premium on distance off the tee, not just to attack the reachable par 5s, but to separate on approach.
Over time, success at Scottsdale has strongly favored players who excel in Strokes Gained: Approach, Total Driving, and Birdie or Better percentage, and it is one of the more predictive stops on the PGA TOUR when it comes to course history.
This year’s field is stacked, featuring 10 former major champions and 11 of the top 20 players in the world, including Scottie Scheffler returning alongside two-time winner Brooks Koepka.
The Dimers Pro golf predictions ended last season on an elite run, headlined by Tommy Fleetwood's first win at the TOUR Championship. This season, we've accurately identified value on Scottie Scheffler to win and Russell Henley to place Top 10 and Top 20 at the American Express, as well as the live value on Justin Rose to win the Farmers Insurance Open at +500.
2026 WM Phoenix Open Preview
Date: February 5-8, 2026
Location: Scottsdale, AZ
Course: TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course)
Par: 71 / 7,261 yards
Purse: $9.6 million
Previous winner: Thomas Detry (-24, 260)
Who Will Win the 2026 WM Phoenix Open?
Below are the five most likely winners of the 2026 WM Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale this week.
Our win predictions are the result of simulating the tournament over 10,000 times via our AI models, as well as each golfer's odds to finish Top 5, 10 and 20:
Scottie Scheffler enters as the clear favorite, sporting a massive 33.4% win probability with recent form once again resembling the most dominant player on TOUR. His all-around game and elite ball-striking make him the benchmark for the field this week.
Ben Griffin continues to trend upward after a three-win season in 2025, pairing a 5.5% win probability with a strong 57.2% top-20 probability thanks to steady recent finishes and improving confidence in big fields.
Harry Hall profiles as a steady riser, reaching the top 20 in nearly half of our simulations and showing improved consistency in recent starts. While his win odds are long, his short game and scoring ability give him sneaky upside if he hangs around into the weekend.
Xander Schauffele’s numbers reflect his usual reliability, with nearly a 30% top-10 probability and even without value in his odds to win, his floor remains among the highest in the field whenever the course rewards complete ball-strikers.
Cameron Young brings strong upside with a 46.6% top-20 probability, fueled by elite driving and if the putter cooperates, he has the firepower to turn another solid week into a serious run at a title.
| Golfer | Win% | Top 5% | Top 10% | Top 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | 33.4% | 64.3% | 77.0% | 57.2% |
| Ben Griffin | 5.5% | 23.8% | 39.3% | 57.2% |
| Harry Hall | 3.6% | 17.3% | 30.3% | 47.4% |
| Xander Schauffele | 3.4% | 17.9% | 29.9% | 49.1% |
| Cameron Young | 3.0% | 16.7% | 29.7% | 46.6% |
MORE: Dimers' In-House Golf Rankings
Dimers' WM Phoenix Open Best Bets
For each tournament, we look at the golfers our model has identified with a higher probability to win than what is implied by the sportsbook odds.
We'll also highlight any standout prop and placement bets for other golfers if we find any appealing value hidden in the Dimers golf predictions.
Scottie Scheffler to Win (+240 on bet365)
Win probability: 33.4%
Dimers' fair odds: +200
Scottie Scheffler once again enters as a short favorite, but the numbers say there’s still value to be had.
Our model gives him a 33.4% win probability, making anything north of +200 playable, and he’s coming off an opening-event win for the first time in his career.
Last year’s T25 at TPC Scottsdale looks like an outlier given he was recovering from offseason hand surgery, and his course history is otherwise elite with back-to-back wins in 2022 and 2023, plus additional top-10 finishes.
With minus odds just to finish top five, fading Scheffler at this venue has historically been a losing proposition.
Ben Griffin to Win (+3500 on bet365)
Win probability: 5.5%
Dimers' fair odds: +1720
Griffin is one of the most compelling outright values on the board, carrying a 5.5% win probability that implies a fair price closer to +1720.
While he hasn’t fully broken into contention yet this season, he’s already posted two top-25 finishes and his profile fits TPC Scottsdale extremely well: strong off the tee, reliable putting, and excellent scoring on longer par 4s and par 5s. —
His past results here (T28, T36) aren't incredible, but he's only getting better.
With Scheffler accounting for more than a third of win equity, Griffin’s +2500 price in “Winner without Scheffler” markets still holds an edge, and he remains a prime candidate to assert himself on a tee-to-green demanding setup.
Harry Hall to Win (+8000 on Bet365)
Win probability: 3.6%
Dimers' fair odds: +2700
Hall checks in as a longshot with real upside, owning a 3.6% win probability that suggests fair odds closer to +2700 for a massive edge.
His course history is modest with a T41 and a missed cut, but his current form is much stronger, highlighted by a T6 and T24 in his two starts this season.
Statistically, he profiles as an excellent fit, ranking above field average in driving, putting, and scoring, and while approach play leaves a bit to be desired, that hasn’t stopped him from piling up results when conditions favor aggressive drivers and hot putters.
With just one finish outside the top 25 in his past 10 events dating back to last season, Hall stands out as an ideal ladder play, particularly at +200 for a top-20.
Best Props at the WM Phoenix Open
With plenty of value in the top contenders, we're highlighting a couple of other ways to use the Dimers data.
Top 20 Parlay
Three players get an edge for a Top 20 finish in our predictions: Ben Griffin (57.4%), Harry Hall (47.4%) and Corey Conners (40.8%).
Play them as singles or entertain a longshot parlay at +2006 odds on DraftKings for all three to secure a Top 20 finish.
Expert Golf Picks and Predictions for 2026 PGA TOUR
As well as being your best source for PGA golf predictions, Dimers Pros also have access to the latest golf news, golf predictions for every game, weekly golf rankings, and golf matchup H2H tool.
- PGA Predictions: Our data-backed predictions for every tournament, including every major.
- Head-to-Head Predictor: Simulate any H2H tournament matchup between golfers
- Dimers' PGA Rankings: Our in-house approach to ranking the World's best golfers
- PGA Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the PGA TOUR
Dimers and Responsible Gambling
Please remember to enjoy gambling responsibly. Responsible gambling means setting limits, staying in control, and understanding that luck is just part of the game. Make informed choices, set a budget, and know when to take a break. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.
To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Nick Slade through our fact-checking process.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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