May 24, 2026
Mercury vs. Dream prediction: Why Atlanta is favored to win Sunday's WNBA game [5/24/2026]
Read Article WNBA first basket picks and predictions for Sunday, May 24, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get first basket predictions today driven by expert analysis of WNBA slate on 5/24.
Our WNBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Sunday, May 24, 2026—are live with the Mavericks' Paige Bueckers projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections draw on detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily WNBA player projections.
Bueckers, Zia Cooke and Breanna Stewart lead Sunday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
WNBA first basket predictions tonight (May 24, 2026)
| Player (Team) | FB Probability |
|---|---|
| Paige Bueckers (Wings) | 15.1% |
| Zia Cooke (Storm) | 14.2% |
| Breanna Stewart (Liberty) | 14.0% |
| Kiki Iriafen (Mystics) | 13.8% |
| Allisha Gray (Dream) | 12.6% |
| Kahleah Copper (Mercury) | 12.5% |
| Rhyne Howard (Dream) | 11.9% |
| Satou Sabally (Liberty) | 11.7% |
| Shakira Austin (Mystics) | 11.5% |
| Natisha Hiedeman (Storm) | 11.2% |
| Sonia Citron (Mystics) | 10.4% |
| Alyssa Thomas (Mercury) | 10.2% |
| Flau'jae Johnson (Storm) | 9.9% |
| Jovana Nogic (Mercury) | 9.9% |
| Sabrina Ionescu (Liberty) | 9.6% |
| Angel Reese (Dream) | 9.5% |
| Azzi Fudd (Wings) | 9.5% |
| Jessica Shepard (Wings) | 9.3% |
| Natasha Mack (Mercury) | 9.1% |
| Jordin Canada (Dream) | 8.9% |
| Jade Melbourne (Storm) | 8.8% |
| Arike Ogunbowale (Wings) | 8.8% |
| Cotie McMahon (Mystics) | 8.7% |
| DeWanna Bonner (Mercury) | 8.2% |
| Jonquel Jones (Liberty) | 7.5% |
| Alanna Smith (Wings) | 7.3% |
| Marine Johannes (Liberty) | 7.1% |
| Naz Hillmon (Dream) | 7.0% |
| Stefanie Dolson (Storm) | 5.9% |
| Georgia Amoore (Mystics) | 5.6% |
WNBA first basket picks today (May 24, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paige Bueckers | Wings | 3.4% | +750 | 15.1% |
| Natisha Hiedeman | Storm | 1.7% | +950 | 11.2% |
| Kiki Iriafen | Mystics | 1.3% | +700 | 13.8% |
| Cotie McMahon | Mystics | 1.0% | +1200 | 8.7% |
| Satou Sabally | Liberty | 0.6% | +800 | 11.7% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 5/24.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Sunday, May 24, 2026, Paige Bueckers, Zia Cooke and Breanna Stewart lead our first basket projections, with Bueckers shaping as the strongest value play at +750. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ WNBA first basket model.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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