Jul 3, 2026
United States vs. Belgium prediction, odds, props, World Cup 2026 picks [Round of 16]
Read Article World Cup bets today: Five round of 16 picks for Saturday ft. France vs. Paraguay [7/4/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get soccer World Cup picks today and best bets for Saturday, July 4, 2026.
Today’s World Cup betting tips for Independence Day are here, with France vs. Paraguay among the top plays identified by our model across Saturday’s round of 16 action.
Dimers’ predictive analytics engine runs 24/7, scanning the latest soccer odds to uncover top betting edges. The result? Data-backed picks that help Dimers Pro members make smarter decisions.
List of soccer World Cup picks today [7/4, updated 3:40AM ET]
Below, you’ll find today’s best World Cup bets, ranked by edge for Saturday, July 4, 2026.
France vs. Paraguay Under 2.5 goals (+138)
- Edge: 6.4%
- Probability: 48.4%
- Matchup: France vs. Paraguay (5:00PM ET)
Our model has identified value on Under 2.5 goals in France vs. Paraguay at +138 odds. A 48.4% probability produces an edge of 6.4%, making this the strongest play for today's World Cup slate.
Morocco vs. Canada BTTS: No (-118)
- Edge: 6.1%
- Probability: 60.3%
- Matchup: Morocco vs. Canada (1:00PM ET)
Both Morocco and Canada to score (No) carries a 6.1% edge and a probability of 60.3% at -118 odds, according to our model.
Morocco vs. Canada Under 2.5 goals (-135)
- Edge: 5.6%
- Probability: 63%
- Matchup: Morocco vs. Canada (1:00PM ET)
Morocco vs. Canada Under 2.5 goals at -135 odds shows a 5.6% edge, supported by a 63% probability in simulations.
Double chance: Paraguay or draw (+440)
- Edge: 2.9%
- Probability: 21.4%
- Matchup: France vs. Paraguay (5:00PM ET)
A 2.9% edge and 21.4% probability makes France at the moneyline a value play in the France vs. Paraguay matchup, per our model.
France vs. Paraguay: Draw (+669)
- Edge: 2.4%
- Probability: 15.4%
- Matchup: France vs. Paraguay (5:00PM ET)
France vs. Paraguay to finish in a tie at +669 odds presents a 2.4% edge, with simulations resulting in a probability of 15.4%.
World Cup round of 16 best bets summary: Saturday, 7/4/2026
As of 3:40AM ET, here are our top World Cup bets by edge recommended by our model:
| Matchup | Bet | Odds | Edge | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| France vs. Paraguay | Under 2.5 goals | +138 @ Novig | 6.4% | 48.4% |
| Morocco vs. Canada | BTTS (No) | -118 @ FanDuel | 6.1% | 60.3% |
| Morocco vs. Canada | Under 2.5 Goals | -135 @ Novig | 5.6% | 63% |
| France vs. Paraguay | Double chance: Paraguay or draw | +440 @ FanDuel | 2.9% | 21.4% |
| France vs. Paraguay | Draw after 90 mins | +669 @ Novig | 2.4% | 15.4% |
List of upcoming World Cup games to bet on [7/4/2026]
- Morocco vs. Canada (1:00PM ET, Saturday)
- France vs. Paraguay (5:00PM ET, Saturday)
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Conclusion
Our World Cup best bets are locked and loaded for July 4, 2026, featuring plays such as under 2.5 goals in the France vs. Paraguay matchup and Morocco and Canada to both score (No). Powered by advanced simulations, these picks are here to boost your betting game.
Our predictions are grounded in current data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice, head to our Responsible Gambling hub.
All odds and probabilities in this article are correct and accurate at the time of publication.
Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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