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Cognizant Classic golf parlay picks: Best head-to-head matchup picks at PGA National feature Aaron Rai
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Reviewed by Nick Slade
Leg 1: Aaron Rai to beat Rico Hoey (-122)
First up, let's look at Englishman Aaron Rai to come out on top of this battle between 30-year olds.
Rai turned his best performance of the year so far with a T28 at the Genesis, where a final round 76 cost him some good placement, now making his debut at the Cognizant Classic.
Hoey isn't off to a very good start this year, flashing a T24 at the Phoenix Open, but otherwise turning in a missed cut, withdrawal and three finishes of T50 or worse, and he's finished T56 and T25 here in the past.
Accuracy is pivotal at PGA National and Rai is one of the most accurate drivers in the field with a strong approach game, two of Hoey's main deficiencies.
With a 61.6% to win or tie, Rai's fair odds would be -160, giving us a solid edge and highlighting a clear misprice on Hoey, who is -108, yet should be closer to +140 per our model.
Leg 2: Will Zalatoris to beat Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen (-112)
Next up, we're looking at Will Zalatoris to win his matchup with Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen, the strongest probability of the three matchups in this parlay.
Zalatoris has two starts this year with a T18 and missed cut, while Neergaard-Petersen has a pair of Top 50 finishes.
If you look at the statistical overlay of these two golfers, Zalatoris has the edge in nearly every category, especially where it matters, like driving accuracy and strokes gained on approach, with a huge discrepancy in scoring; Zalatoris ranks 8th on TOUR on Par 4s, while his opponent ranks 104th, with a similar gap in bogey avoidance.
Combine that analytical edge with the model's 63.5% probability to win or tie in a matchup the books have nearly dead even, and Zalatoris gets the clear edge.
Leg 3: Shane Lowry to beat Nicolai Hojgaard (-128)
We'll wrap up this parlay with a clash between our model's top two projected golfers in the tournament, giving the edge to our most likely winner of it all, Shane Lowry.
We broke down why Lowry is a must-bet for value in our Cognizant Classic Best Bets, and all of that reasoning applies here as well.
He has excellent course history here, making all eight cuts with three Top 5s and a T11 in his last four appearances.
Hojgaard is no slouch either, but has less history on his side, with just two appearances at this event, a missed cut and T18 separated by three full years.
Both golfers are off to good starts through a pair of events this year with a Top 10 and Top 25 finish apiece, but haven't participated in the same tournament yet.
Hojgaard has the edge on distance off the tee, but accuracy is all Lowry, who has the far more well-rounded approach game.
This is the tightest of these three matchups, but a 57.6% for the Irishman to win or tie gives us right around fair odds, while our model says Hojgaard should be plus money, though he sits at -104.
+520 Cognizant Classic Parlay Picks
To round up our parlay, we have these three matchups below, with our selected golfer predicted to win over the course of 72 holes, at odds of +520 on DraftKings Sportsbook:
| Tournament Matchup | Win % | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rai to beat Rico Hoey | 57.5% | -122 |
| Will Zalatoris to beat Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen | 59.5% | -112 |
| Shane Lowry to beat Nicolai Hojgaard | 53.3% | -128 |
Dimers' Expert Golf Picks and Predictions for 2026 PGA TOUR
As well as being your best source for PGA golf predictions, Dimers also has the latest golf news, golf predictions for every game, weekly golf rankings, and golf matchup H2H tool.
- PGA Predictions: Our data-backed predictions for every tournament, including The Open and every major.
- Head-to-Head Predictor: Simulate any H2H tournament matchup between golfers
- Dimers' PGA Rankings: Our in-house approach to ranking the World's best golfers
- PGA Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the PGA TOUR
Dimers and Responsible Gambling
Please remember to enjoy gambling responsibly. Responsible gambling means setting limits, staying in control, and understanding that luck is just part of the game. Make informed choices, set a budget, and know when to take a break. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.
The PGA TOUR moves from the West Coast to the East Coast, beginning a run of four straight Florida events with the 2026 Cognizant Classic at the Palm Beaches, a wide open event that many of the Top 50 ranked golfers are sitting out, opening the door for numerous golf betting opportunities.
As we do for all tournaments, Dimers has you covered with our best golf bets, full golf predictions and outright picks for the weekend and now it’s time to dive into some matchup angles with these +520 golf parlay picks, one of our favorite ways to attack elite-field events where everyone gets four guaranteed rounds.
A tough beat cost us the win last week, with Harris English nabbing five birdies on Sunday's back 9 to beat Matt Fitzpatrick by one stroke, but the Dimers model's predictions were dialed in on the other two matchups and we're looking for the win this time around.
Outright winners and Top-5, Top-10 and Top-20 markets typically draw the most attention, but head-to-head matchups can be just as profitable as you are narrowing down the field of competition to just a handful of golfers.
To make this market easier, Dimers uses an in-house head-to-head golf simulation tool that pits golfers directly against each other and projects who will finish higher, whether for Round 1 or across the full 72 holes for every tournament on the PGA TOUR.
Cognizant Classic Parlay Picks at +520 Odds
To make this parlay, we'll be using the Head-to-Head matchups available at DraftKings Sportsbook. We'll enter both golfers into our H2H Predictor, select the Tournament-long option, and see which golfer gets the advantage for the weekend.
With a handy "Fair Odds" to "Percentages" toggle, you can always check to see if there's value in any given matchup, and with a Dimers Pro subscription, you can simulate unlimited matchups for every tournament.
Leg 1: Aaron Rai to beat Rico Hoey (-122)
First up, let's look at Englishman Aaron Rai to come out on top of this battle between 30-year olds.
Rai turned his best performance of the year so far with a T28 at the Genesis, where a final round 76 cost him some good placement, now making his debut at the Cognizant Classic.
Hoey isn't off to a very good start this year, flashing a T24 at the Phoenix Open, but otherwise turning in a missed cut, withdrawal and three finishes of T50 or worse, and he's finished T56 and T25 here in the past.
Accuracy is pivotal at PGA National and Rai is one of the most accurate drivers in the field with a strong approach game, two of Hoey's main deficiencies.
With a 61.6% to win or tie, Rai's fair odds would be -160, giving us a solid edge and highlighting a clear misprice on Hoey, who is -108, yet should be closer to +140 per our model.
Leg 2: Will Zalatoris to beat Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen (-112)
Next up, we're looking at Will Zalatoris to win his matchup with Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen, the strongest probability of the three matchups in this parlay.
Zalatoris has two starts this year with a T18 and missed cut, while Neergaard-Petersen has a pair of Top 50 finishes.
If you look at the statistical overlay of these two golfers, Zalatoris has the edge in nearly every category, especially where it matters, like driving accuracy and strokes gained on approach, with a huge discrepancy in scoring; Zalatoris ranks 8th on TOUR on Par 4s, while his opponent ranks 104th, with a similar gap in bogey avoidance.
Combine that analytical edge with the model's 63.5% probability to win or tie in a matchup the books have nearly dead even, and Zalatoris gets the clear edge.
Leg 3: Shane Lowry to beat Nicolai Hojgaard (-128)
We'll wrap up this parlay with a clash between our model's top two projected golfers in the tournament, giving the edge to our most likely winner of it all, Shane Lowry.
We broke down why Lowry is a must-bet for value in our Cognizant Classic Best Bets, and all of that reasoning applies here as well.
He has excellent course history here, making all eight cuts with three Top 5s and a T11 in his last four appearances.
Hojgaard is no slouch either, but has less history on his side, with just two appearances at this event, a missed cut and T18 separated by three full years.
Both golfers are off to good starts through a pair of events this year with a Top 10 and Top 25 finish apiece, but haven't participated in the same tournament yet.
Hojgaard has the edge on distance off the tee, but accuracy is all Lowry, who has the far more well-rounded approach game.
This is the tightest of these three matchups, but a 57.6% for the Irishman to win or tie gives us right around fair odds, while our model says Hojgaard should be plus money, though he sits at -104.
+520 Cognizant Classic Parlay Picks
To round up our parlay, we have these three matchups below, with our selected golfer predicted to win over the course of 72 holes, at odds of +520 on DraftKings Sportsbook:
| Tournament Matchup | Win % | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rai to beat Rico Hoey | 57.5% | -122 |
| Will Zalatoris to beat Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen | 59.5% | -112 |
| Shane Lowry to beat Nicolai Hojgaard | 53.3% | -128 |
Dimers' Expert Golf Picks and Predictions for 2026 PGA TOUR
As well as being your best source for PGA golf predictions, Dimers also has the latest golf news, golf predictions for every game, weekly golf rankings, and golf matchup H2H tool.
- PGA Predictions: Our data-backed predictions for every tournament, including The Open and every major.
- Head-to-Head Predictor: Simulate any H2H tournament matchup between golfers
- Dimers' PGA Rankings: Our in-house approach to ranking the World's best golfers
- PGA Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the PGA TOUR
Dimers and Responsible Gambling
Please remember to enjoy gambling responsibly. Responsible gambling means setting limits, staying in control, and understanding that luck is just part of the game. Make informed choices, set a budget, and know when to take a break. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.
To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Nick Slade through our fact-checking process.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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