Home Run Picks and Parlay in Mets vs. Phillies Today [July 16, 2026]

It's a small MLB betting slate as the league returns from the All-Star Break on Thursday, July 16, featuring only Mets vs. Phillies, and we're using our home run predictions to find the best players to back in a home run parlay today.

All season long, you'll find today's top home run probabilities ranked by the Dimers model in Dimers Pro, both here on Dimers.com and in the Dimers App, the ultimate companion tool for MLB bettors.

We've dropped the paywall for this parlay, but to see all of our daily home run predictions, you can try out Dimers Pro FREE for 3 days when you sign up for a new subscription.

MLB home run parlay bet today, Thursday, July 16

Combining our hitter and pitcher projections with our MLB player prop tool and MLB trends can help isolate a handful of players from a full slate or even a single game, which is what we've got in play tonight.

With these home run picks, you can play them as a +1800 longshot home run parlay or as straight bets, though neither of them gets the Dimers edge we look for when playing straights. However, we do have a Home Run Sweet Spot with bets at a 43.0% ROI.

Learn more about the Sweet Spot, another great Dimers pro resource that identifies the most profitable bets, props and edge rangers season-to-date.

Dimers' HR prop "Sweet Spot"

1. Francisco Alvarez (Mets) to hit a home run (+420)

At the heart of this home run parlay is the matchup against Phillies starter Aaron Nola, and while we'd love to go with Juan Soto who's got 5 HR against him in his career, his +200 odds are a tall order, implying a 33.3% chance against our 17.3% probability.

Nola's given up 20 home runs this year, 8 of them to right-handed batters across just 41.2 IP, with the right-handed Francisco Alvarez picking up 7 of his 9 HR off righties this year.

Alvarez had a strong June with 5 HR before not getting one in July before the break, but he was slugging the ball well heading into All-Star Weekend, and he draws a 15.6% probability in this matchup, fourth-highest in the game and second on the Mets.

Batting 9th isn't the most ideal as fewer at-bats are in play, but it's where he hits the best. He's seen Aaron Nola a few times with 8 at-bats and 1 home run against the Phillies starter.

Fair odds for Alvarez would be +540, putting him not that far off.

MORE: See every player's home run projection

2. Bryce Harper (Phillies) to hit a home run (+280)

Moving to the other side of the matchup, we'll look at former HR Derby champ and one of this year's reps for the Phillies at the Derby, Bryce Harper.

Harper's +280 odds imply a probability of 26.3%, notably higher than our model's 16.5%. But, he's a better price than his teammate Kyle Schwarber who sits south of +200 in the +170s, and other Phillies drop into the 10-12% range for a home run.

After hitting 6, 7 and 7 home runs in consecutive months, he's without one in July, making him as due as ever in a solid matchup with Mets starter Christian Scott. Over his last four starts, Scott gave up six of the seven HR he's allowed over 54 IP this year, favoring lefties with 6 of them.

17 of Harper's 20 homers have come against righthanders, one of those off of Scott, and all three of Scott's primary pitches (4-seam, cutter, sweeper) are Harper's best this year.

MLB home run parlay bet

For a bigger payout at a higher risk, you can bet these home run props as a parlay at +1800 at the best odds on Fanatics Sportsbook, returning $190 off a $10 bet.

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