MLB player props today: Thursday's best props include Aaron Nola [7/16/2026]
Get MLB player props today with projections for Thursday's games.
Dimers' MLB props are live for July 16, 2026, with today's top prop bets led by the likes of Aaron Nola, Gabriel Rincones Jr. and Christian Scott.
Our MLB player props model runs continuously, analyzing every matchup, including today's Mets vs. Phillies clash, to surface the best MLB player prop bets across the market.
List of MLB prop picks for Thursday, 7/16
Below are the top 10 MLB player props for July 16, ranked by probability.
Aaron Nola over 4.5 hits allowed (-141)
- Edge: 8.6%
- Probability: 67.1%
- Game: Mets vs. Phillies (7:10PM ET)
Our model has flagged value on Philadelphia's Aaron Nola over 4.5 hits allowed. A probability of 67.1% gives this play an edge of 8.6% at -141 odds.
Gabriel Rincones Jr. to get a hit (-113)
- Edge: 3.6%
- Probability: 56.7%
- Game: Mets vs. Phillies (7:10PM ET)
Gabriel Rincones Jr.’s to get a hit prop shows a 56.7% probability and an 3.6% edge at -113 odds, according to our model.
Christian Scott under 2.5 earned runs (-113)
- Edge: 3.2%
- Probability: 56.3%
- Game: Mets vs. Phillies (7:10PM ET)
The data highlights value on Christian Scott under 2.5 earned runs, with simulations showing a 56.3% probability and a 3.2% edge at -113.
Kyle Schwarber over 1.5 bases (+120)
- Edge: 3.1%
- Probability: 48.5%
- Game: Mets vs. Phillies (7:10PM ET)
Our model finds value on Kyle Schwarber over 1.5 bases, with a 48.5% probability and an edge of 3.1% at +120 odds.
Trea Turner over 1.5 bases (+135)
- Edge: 4.6%
- Probability: 47.1%
- Game: Mets vs. Phillies (7:10PM ET)
Simulations indicate value on Trea Turner over 1.5 bases for Philadelphia, showing an edge of 4.6% at +135 odds.
Alec Bohm over 1.5 bases (+150)
- Edge: 5.4%
- Probability: 45.4%
- Game: Mets vs. Phillies (7:10PM ET)
Alec Bohm’s bases prop shows an edge of 5.4% at +150 odds, supported by a 45.4% probability according to our model.
J.T. Realmuto over 1.5 bases (+155)
- Edge: 3.4%
- Probability: 42.6%
- Game: Mets vs. Phillies (7:10PM ET)
Our model highlights value on J.T. Realmuto over 1.5 bases for Philadelphia, with a 42.6% probability and a 3.4% edge at +155 odds.
Justin Crawford over 1.5 bases (+174)
- Edge: 3.4%
- Probability: 39.9%
- Game: Mets vs. Phillies (7:10PM ET)
The data shows value on Justin Crawford over 1.5 bases, supported by a 39.9% probability at +174 odds and an edge of 3.4%.
Francisco Alvarez over 1.5 bases (+179)
- Edge: 3.7%
- Probability: 39.5%
- Game: Mets vs. Phillies (7:10PM ET)
A 3.7% edge on the over 1.5 bases line makes Francisco Alvarez a value play in Mets vs. Phillies, supported by a 39.5% probability at +179 odds.
Gabriel Rincones Jr. over 1.5 bases (+214)
- Edge: 6.1%
- Probability: 38.0%
- Game: Mets vs. Phillies (7:10PM ET)
Simulations show value on Gabriel Rincones Jr. over 1.5 bases here, with a 38.0% probability and 6.1% edge at +214 odds.
MLB player prop summary: Thursday, July 16, 2026
A quick summary of today’s top props by probability according to our model as of 3:53AM ET:
| Prop | Odds | Edge | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola over 4.5 hits allowed | -141 @ DraftKings | 8.6% | 67.1% |
| Gabriel Rincones Jr. to get a hit | -113 @ DraftKings | 3.6% | 56.7% |
| Christian Scott under 2.5 earned runs | -113 @ DraftKings | 3.1% | 48.5% |
| Kyle Schwarber over 1.5 bases | +120 @ DraftKings | 3.1% | 48.5% |
| Trea Turner over 1.5 bases | +135 @ Fanatics | 4.6% | 47.1% |
| Alec Bohm over 1.5 bases | +150 @ FanDuel | 5.4% | 45.4% |
| J.T. Realmuto over 1.5 bases | +155 @ Fanatics | 3.4% | 42.6% |
| Justin Crawford over 1.5 bases | +174 @ DraftKings | 3.4% | 39.9% |
| Francisco Alvarez over 1.5 bases | +179 @ DraftKings | 3.7% | 39.5% |
| Gabriel Rincones Jr. over 1.5 bases | +214 @ DraftKings | 6.1% | 38.0% |
Conclusion
For July 16, 2026, our MLB prop bets feature players such as Aaron Nola, Gabriel Rincones Jr. and Christian Scott. Each pick is grounded in real-time data and advanced simulations to help you bet with clarity and purpose.
Built using automation and human oversight, this article draws on the latest data to deliver accurate, timely insights. If using this article for betting, Dimers encourages responsible gambling.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
