Liberty vs. Tempo prediction: Why New York is favored to win Sunday's WNBA matchup [7/12/2026]
Get New York Liberty vs Toronto Tempo predictions for WNBA Sunday.
The Toronto Tempo and New York Liberty will meet in the WNBA at Bell Centre on Sunday, starting at 3:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven WNBA model predicts the Liberty as the most likely winner of the Liberty vs. Tempo game.
The Tempo, who have stars such as Marina Mabrey, Isabelle Harrison and Maria Conde, are set to take on the Liberty, featuring Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu and Jonquel Jones.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Sunday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.
Liberty vs. Tempo prediction: Who will win and cover?
Our leading predictive model currently gives the Liberty a 72.8% chance of beating the Tempo.
According to our model, the Tempo (+6.5) have a 53.2% chance of covering the spread, while the 178.5-point over/under has a 62.7% chance of staying under,.
Liberty vs. Tempo odds
We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Liberty | Tempo |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -6.5 (-114) | +6.5 (+100) |
| Moneyline | -285 | +235 |
| Total | o178.5 (-108) | u178.5 (-108) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Liberty vs. Tempo picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tempo +6.5 | +100 |
| Moneyline | Liberty | -285 |
| Total | Under 178.5 | -108 |
According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 178.5 total points.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Liberty vs. Tempo player props
Looking for Liberty vs. Tempo WNBA prop bets? We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Bell Centre.
Breanna Stewart is expected to lead the Liberty with 20 points, 8 rebounds and 3 assists, while Marina Mabrey is projected to have 18 points, 4 rebounds and 4 assists for the Tempo.
Looking at the opening tip, the numbers point to Marina Mabrey striking first with a 15.3% probability.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.
Liberty prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Liberty are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breanna Stewart | 20 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 41 |
| Sabrina Ionescu | 18 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 41 |
| Jonquel Jones | 15 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 35 |
| Pauline Astier | 10 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 24 |
| Marine Johannes | 7 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 18 |
Tempo prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Tempo:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marina Mabrey | 18 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 34 |
| I. Harrison | 13 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 29 |
| Maria Conde | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 25 |
| Nyara Sabally | 10 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 23 |
| Laura Juskaite | 8 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 18 |
Liberty vs. Tempo game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's game between the Tempo and Liberty at Bell Centre is scheduled to start at 3:00 PM ET.
- Who: New York Liberty vs. Toronto Tempo
- Date: Sunday, July 12, 2026
- Time: 3:00 PM ET/12:00PM PT
- Venue: Bell Centre
Conclusion
We predict the Liberty, with a 72.8% win probability, will likely beat the Tempo in Sunday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
