Storm vs. Mystics prediction: Why Washington is favored to win Sunday's WNBA matchup [7/12/2026]
Get Seattle Storm vs Washington Mystics predictions for WNBA Sunday.
The Washington Mystics and Seattle Storm will meet in the WNBA at CareFirst Arena on Sunday, with tipoff at 3:00 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven WNBA model predicts the Mystics as the most likely winner of the Storm vs. Mystics game.
The Mystics, who have the likes of Shakira Austin, Kiki Iriafen and Sonia Citron, are set to take on the Storm, who feature Dominique Malonga, Natisha Hiedeman and Awa Fam.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Sunday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.
Storm vs. Mystics prediction: Who will win and cover?
Our famous predictive model currently gives the Mystics a 76.3% chance of beating the Storm.
According to our model, the Mystics (-5.5) have a 54.8% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 162.5 points has a 55.1% chance of going over,.
Storm vs. Mystics odds
We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Storm | Mystics |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +5.5 (+106) | -5.5 (-111) |
| Moneyline | +213 | -223 |
| Total | o162.5 (-104) | u162.5 (-106) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Storm vs. Mystics picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Mystics -5.5 | novig-111 |
| Moneyline | Mystics | novig-223 |
| Total | Over 162.5 | novig-104 |
According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Mystics to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Storm vs. Mystics player props
Looking for Storm vs. Mystics WNBA prop bets? We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at CareFirst Arena.
Dominique Malonga is expected to lead the Storm with 17 points, 9 rebounds and 2 assists, while Shakira Austin is projected to have 17 points, 8 rebounds and 3 assists for the Mystics.
Shifting focus to the first basket market, our projections highlight Kiki Iriafen as the most likely player to open the scoring.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.
Storm prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Storm are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Malonga | 17 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 37 |
| N. Hiedeman | 14 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 29 |
| Awa Fam | 13 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 29 |
| F. Johnson | 11 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 23 |
| Jade Melbourne | 6 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
Mystics prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Mystics:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shakira Austin | 17 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 39 |
| Kiki Iriafen | 16 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 34 |
| Sonia Citron | 16 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 32 |
| Cotie McMahon | 11 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 20 |
| M. Onyenwere | 10 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 18 |
Storm vs. Mystics game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's action between the Mystics and Storm at CareFirst Arena is scheduled to start at 3:00 PM ET.
- Who: Seattle Storm vs. Washington Mystics
- Date: Sunday, July 12, 2026
- Time: 3:00 PM ET/12:00PM PT
- Venue: CareFirst Arena
Conclusion
We predict the Mystics, with a 76.3% win probability, will likely beat the Storm in Sunday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
