WNBA first basket picks and predictions for Sunday, July 12, 2026
Get first basket predictions today driven by expert analysis of WNBA slate on 7/12.
Our WNBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Sunday, July 12, 2026—are live with the Aces' A'ja Wilson projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections draw on detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily WNBA player projections.
Wilson, Marina Mabrey and Breanna Stewart lead Sunday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
WNBA first basket predictions tonight (July 12, 2026)
| Player (Team) | FB Probability |
|---|---|
| A'ja Wilson (Aces) | 15.5% |
| Marina Mabrey (Tempo) | 15.3% |
| Breanna Stewart (Liberty) | 14.6% |
| Paige Bueckers (Wings) | 14.4% |
| Kamilla Cardoso (Sky) | 14.4% |
| Kiki Iriafen (Mystics) | 14.1% |
| Sydney Taylor (Sky) | 13.9% |
| Dominique Malonga (Storm) | 13.5% |
| Kelsey Mitchell (Fever) | 12.9% |
| Isabelle Harrison (Tempo) | 12.2% |
| Jackie Young (Aces) | 11.9% |
| Jonquel Jones (Liberty) | 11.8% |
| Caitlin Clark (Fever) | 11.8% |
| Aliyah Boston (Fever) | 11.7% |
| Natisha Hiedeman (Storm) | 11.6% |
| Jessica Shepard (Wings) | 11.3% |
| NaLyssa Smith (Aces) | 10.7% |
| Nyara Sabally (Tempo) | 10.7% |
| Sonia Citron (Mystics) | 10.5% |
| Flau'jae Johnson (Storm) | 10.2% |
| Azzi Fudd (Wings) | 9.9% |
| Michaela Onyenwere (Mystics) | 9.6% |
| Sabrina Ionescu (Liberty) | 9.5% |
| Shakira Austin (Mystics) | 8.7% |
| Courtney Vandersloot (Sky) | 8.5% |
| Awa Fam (Storm) | 8.5% |
| Azura Stevens (Sky) | 8.0% |
| Arike Ogunbowale (Wings) | 7.5% |
| Pauline Astier (Liberty) | 7.5% |
| Lexie Hull (Fever) | 7.1% |
| Cotie McMahon (Mystics) | 7.1% |
| Awak Kuier (Wings) | 6.8% |
| Maria Conde (Tempo) | 6.7% |
| Marine Johannes (Liberty) | 6.6% |
| Sophie Cunningham (Fever) | 6.6% |
| Jade Melbourne (Storm) | 6.2% |
| Jewell Loyd (Aces) | 6.0% |
| Chelsea Gray (Aces) | 5.9% |
| Natasha Cloud (Sky) | 5.3% |
| Julie Allemand (Tempo) | 5.1% |
WNBA first basket picks today (July 12, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natisha Hiedeman | Storm | 4.5% | +1300 | 11.6% |
| Michaela Onyenwere | Mystics | 2.4% | +1300 | 9.6% |
| Azzi Fudd | Wings | 2.2% | +1200 | 9.9% |
| Isabelle Harrison | Tempo | 2.2% | +900 | 12.2% |
| Jackie Young | Aces | 1.9% | +900 | 11.9% |
| Lexie Hull | Fever | 1.3% | +1620 | 7.1% |
| Paige Bueckers | Wings | 1.1% | +650 | 14.4% |
| Marina Mabrey | Tempo | 1.0% | +600 | 15.3% |
| Sydney Taylor | Sky | 1.0% | +675 | 13.9% |
| Nyara Sabally | Tempo | 0.8% | +910 | 10.7% |
| Caitlin Clark | Fever | 0.6% | +800 | 11.8% |
| Breanna Stewart | Liberty | 0.3% | +600 | 14.6% |
| Maria Conde | Tempo | 0.1% | +1400 | 6.7% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 7/12.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Sunday, July 12, 2026, A'ja Wilson, Marina Mabrey and Breanna Stewart lead our first basket projections, while Natisha Hiedeman shapes as the strongest value play at +1300. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ WNBA first basket model.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
