Jul 4, 2026
WNBA player props today: Independence Day best props include Flau'jae Johnson [7/4/2026]
Read Article WNBA first basket picks and predictions for Saturday, July 4, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of WNBA slate on 7/4.
Our WNBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Saturday, July 4, 2026—are live with the Storm's Dominique Malonga projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections draw on detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily WNBA player projections.
Malonga, Carla Leite and Sarah Ashlee Barker lead Saturday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also identify tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
WNBA first basket predictions tonight (July 4, 2026)
| Player (Team) | FB Probability |
|---|---|
| Dominique Malonga (Storm) | 14.2% |
| Carla Leite (Fire) | 12.0% |
| Sarah Ashlee Barker (Fire) | 11.8% |
| Natisha Hiedeman (Storm) | 11.2% |
| Flau'jae Johnson (Storm) | 9.9% |
| Emily Engstler (Fire) | 9.5% |
| Bridget Carleton (Fire) | 9.0% |
| Awa Fam (Storm) | 8.9% |
| Luisa Geiselsoder (Fire) | 7.7% |
| Jordan Horston (Storm) | 5.8% |
WNBA first basket picks today (July 4, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah Ashlee Barker | Fire | 5.1% | +1400 | 11.8% |
| Natisha Hiedeman | Storm | 1.6% | +940 | 11.2% |
| Bridget Carleton | Fire | 1.3% | +1200 | 9.0% |
| Carla Leite | Fire | 0.9% | +800 | 12.0% |
| Emily Engstler | Fire | 0.4% | +1000 | 9.5% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 7/4.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Saturday, July 4, 2026, Dominique Malonga, Carla Leite and Sarah Ashlee Barker lead our first basket projections, with Barker shaping as the strongest value play at +1400. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ WNBA first basket model.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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