Jul 3, 2026
Lynx vs. Liberty prediction: Minnesota favored to win Friday's WNBA game [7/3/2026]
Read Article WNBA first basket picks and predictions for Friday, July 3, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Experience Officer
Get first basket predictions today backed by expert analysis of WNBA slate on 7/3.
Our WNBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Friday, July 3, 2026—are live with the Sky's Kamilla Cardoso projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections derive insights from key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily WNBA player projections.
Cardoso, A'ja Wilson and Chennedy Carter lead Friday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
WNBA first basket predictions tonight (July 3, 2026)
| Player (Team) | FB Probability |
|---|---|
| Kamilla Cardoso (Sky) | 15.7% |
| A'ja Wilson (Aces) | 15.0% |
| Chennedy Carter (Aces) | 14.3% |
| Breanna Stewart (Liberty) | 13.0% |
| Olivia Miles (Lynx) | 12.9% |
| Natasha Howard (Lynx) | 12.4% |
| Jackie Young (Aces) | 12.1% |
| Jonquel Jones (Liberty) | 11.5% |
| Azura Stevens (Sky) | 10.7% |
| Courtney Williams (Lynx) | 10.3% |
| NaLyssa Smith (Aces) | 10.1% |
| Sabrina Ionescu (Liberty) | 10.0% |
| Skylar Diggins-Smith (Sky) | 9.6% |
| Kayla McBride (Lynx) | 8.9% |
| Pauline Astier (Liberty) | 7.9% |
| Leonie Fiebich (Liberty) | 7.6% |
| Chelsea Gray (Aces) | 7.6% |
| Gabriela Jaquez (Sky) | 7.4% |
| Natasha Cloud (Sky) | 6.6% |
| Nia Coffey (Lynx) | 5.5% |
| Jewell Loyd (Aces) | 5.3% |
WNBA first basket picks today (July 3, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtney Williams | Lynx | 3.2% | +1300 | 10.3% |
| Jackie Young | Aces | 2.6% | +950 | 12.1% |
| Olivia Miles | Lynx | 1.1% | +750 | 12.9% |
| Skylar Diggins-Smith | Sky | 0.9% | +1060 | 9.6% |
| Kayla McBride | Lynx | 0.6% | +1100 | 8.9% |
| NaLyssa Smith | Aces | 0.6% | +950 | 10.1% |
| Leonie Fiebich | Liberty | 0.5% | +1300 | 7.6% |
| Chelsea Gray | Aces | 0.5% | +1300 | 7.6% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 7/3.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Friday, July 3, 2026, Kamilla Cardoso, A'ja Wilson and Chennedy Carter lead our first basket projections, while Courtney Williams shapes as the strongest value play at +1300. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ WNBA first basket model.
For guidance on safer wagering habits, explore our Responsible Gambling resources.
Damien Souness is Chief Experience Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, helping lead sports media brands such as Dimers. He specializes in creating trustworthy and data-driven content for sports fans, with experience working for globally recognized sports and media organizations.
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