Jul 3, 2026
WNBA first basket picks and predictions for Friday, July 3, 2026
Read Article Storm vs. Mercury prediction: Why Phoenix is favored to win Thursday's WNBA matchup [7/2/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Mac Douglass, Senior Editor
Get Seattle Storm vs Phoenix Mercury predictions for WNBA Thursday.
The Phoenix Mercury and Seattle Storm will lock horns in the WNBA at Mortgage Matchup Center on Thursday, with tipoff at 10:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven WNBA model predicts the Mercury as the most likely winner of the Storm vs. Mercury game.
The Mercury, who have stars like Alyssa Thomas, Kahleah Copper and Valeriane Ayayi, are set to take on the Storm, whose lineup includes Dominique Malonga, Natisha Hiedeman and Flau'jae Johnson.
This article offers a closer look at Thursday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.
Storm vs. Mercury prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's WNBA game between the Storm and Mercury, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Mercury a 68.6% chance of beating the Storm.
According to our model, the Mercury (-4.5) have a 51.4% chance of covering the spread, while the 169.5-point over/under has a 53.8% chance of staying under,.
Storm vs. Mercury odds
We have sourced the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Storm | Mercury |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +4.5 (-105) | -4.5 (-105) |
| Moneyline | +165 | -166 |
| Total | o169.5 (-108) | u169.5 (-112) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Storm vs. Mercury picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Mercury -4.5 | -105 |
| Moneyline | Mercury | -166 |
| Total | Under 169.5 | -112 |
According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Mercury to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Storm vs. Mercury player props
WNBA prop bets are an enjoyable way to wager on the Storm vs. Mercury game without necessarily betting on the outcome. We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Mortgage Matchup Center.
Dominique Malonga is expected to lead the Storm with 17 points, 10 rebounds and 2 assists, while Alyssa Thomas is projected to have 17 points, 9 rebounds and 8 assists for the Mercury.
Shifting focus to the first basket market, our projections highlight Dominique Malonga as the most likely player to open the scoring.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.
Storm prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Storm are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Malonga | 17 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 38 |
| N. Hiedeman | 15 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 29 |
| F. Johnson | 12 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 26 |
| Awa Fam | 11 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 25 |
| Jade Melbourne | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 12 |
Mercury prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Mercury:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alyssa Thomas | 17 | 9 | 8 | 0 | 47 |
| Kahleah Copper | 17 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 28 |
| Valeriane Ayayi | 14 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 31 |
| DeWanna Bonner | 10 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 21 |
| Alexa Held | 9 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 20 |
Storm vs. Mercury game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's game between the Mercury and Storm at Mortgage Matchup Center is scheduled to begin at 10:00 PM ET.
- Who: Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix Mercury
- Date: Thursday, July 2, 2026
- Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT
- Venue: Mortgage Matchup Center
Conclusion
We predict the Mercury, with a 68.6% win probability, will likely beat the Storm in Thursday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Mac Douglass specializes in NFL previews for the NFC South and NFC East, MLB best bets, Formula 1 race previews, and professional tennis insights. Combining predictive simulations and data-driven sports analysis, Mac provides in-depth content to elevate the betting experience for sports fans.
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