WNBA first basket picks and predictions for Wednesday, July 22, 2026
Get first basket predictions today backed by expert analysis of WNBA slate on 7/22.
Our WNBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Wednesday, July 22, 2026—are live with the Mercury's Kahleah Copper projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections make use of detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily WNBA player projections.
Copper, Breanna Stewart and A'ja Wilson lead Wednesday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
WNBA first basket predictions tonight (July 22, 2026)
| Player (Team) | FB Probability |
|---|---|
| Kahleah Copper (Mercury) | 16.0% |
| Breanna Stewart (Liberty) | 15.6% |
| A'ja Wilson (Aces) | 15.4% |
| Kamilla Cardoso (Sky) | 14.5% |
| Paige Bueckers (Wings) | 14.5% |
| Kiki Iriafen (Mystics) | 14.3% |
| Brittney Griner (Sun) | 14.2% |
| Nneka Ogwumike (Sparks) | 13.6% |
| Kelsey Mitchell (Fever) | 13.3% |
| Olivia Miles (Lynx) | 13.2% |
| Sydney Taylor (Sky) | 13.0% |
| Dominique Malonga (Storm) | 12.6% |
| Megan Gustafson (Fire) | 12.2% |
| Caitlin Clark (Fever) | 12.2% |
| Jessica Shepard (Wings) | 12.1% |
| Sabrina Ionescu (Liberty) | 12.1% |
| Natisha Hiedeman (Storm) | 12.0% |
| Kayla McBride (Lynx) | 11.9% |
| Aliyah Boston (Fever) | 11.8% |
| Alyssa Thomas (Mercury) | 11.5% |
| Jackie Young (Aces) | 11.5% |
| Shakira Austin (Mystics) | 11.3% |
| Dearica Hamby (Sparks) | 11.1% |
| Aneesah Morrow (Sun) | 11.0% |
| NaLyssa Smith (Aces) | 10.8% |
| Sonia Citron (Mystics) | 10.7% |
| Jonquel Jones (Liberty) | 10.7% |
| Flau'jae Johnson (Storm) | 10.6% |
| Rae Burrell (Sparks) | 10.4% |
| Natasha Howard (Lynx) | 10.2% |
| Leila Lacan (Sun) | 10.1% |
| Carla Leite (Fire) | 10.1% |
| Courtney Williams (Lynx) | 9.9% |
| Sarah Ashlee Barker (Fire) | 9.8% |
| Emily Engstler (Fire) | 9.4% |
| Azura Stevens (Sky) | 9.3% |
| Azzi Fudd (Wings) | 9.3% |
| Pauline Astier (Liberty) | 8.7% |
| Bridget Carleton (Fire) | 8.5% |
| Awa Fam (Storm) | 8.2% |
| DeWanna Bonner (Mercury) | 8.1% |
| Valeriane Ayayi (Mercury) | 8.0% |
| Arike Ogunbowale (Wings) | 7.6% |
| Michaela Onyenwere (Mystics) | 7.6% |
| Erica Wheeler (Sparks) | 7.5% |
| Kennedy Burke (Sun) | 7.4% |
| Ariel Atkins (Sparks) | 7.4% |
| Jacy Sheldon (Sky) | 7.3% |
| Charlisse Leger-Walker (Sun) | 7.2% |
| Chelsea Gray (Aces) | 7.0% |
| Lexie Hull (Fever) | 6.7% |
| Jade Melbourne (Storm) | 6.6% |
| Awak Kuier (Wings) | 6.6% |
| Noemie Brochant (Mercury) | 6.4% |
| Cotie McMahon (Mystics) | 6.1% |
| Sophie Cunningham (Fever) | 6.0% |
| Natasha Cloud (Sky) | 5.8% |
| Jewell Loyd (Aces) | 5.4% |
| Nia Coffey (Lynx) | 4.7% |
| Rebecca Allen (Liberty) | 2.9% |
WNBA first basket picks today (July 22, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kayla McBride | Lynx | 4.8% | +1300 | 11.9% |
| Sydney Taylor | Sky | 3.9% | +1000 | 13.0% |
| Natisha Hiedeman | Storm | 2.5% | +950 | 12.0% |
| Courtney Williams | Lynx | 2.2% | +1200 | 9.9% |
| Kelsey Mitchell | Fever | 2.2% | +800 | 13.3% |
| Caitlin Clark | Fever | 1.7% | +850 | 12.2% |
| Jackie Young | Aces | 1.5% | +900 | 11.5% |
| Emily Engstler | Fire | 1.0% | +1100 | 9.4% |
| Kiki Iriafen | Mystics | 1.0% | +650 | 14.3% |
| Sabrina Ionescu | Liberty | 1.0% | +800 | 12.1% |
| Sarah Ashlee Barker | Fire | 0.7% | +1000 | 9.8% |
| Megan Gustafson | Fire | 0.5% | +750 | 12.2% |
| Pauline Astier | Liberty | 0.3% | +1100 | 8.7% |
| Sonia Citron | Mystics | 0.2% | +850 | 10.7% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 7/22.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Wednesday, July 22, 2026, Kahleah Copper, Breanna Stewart and A'ja Wilson lead our first basket projections, while Kayla McBride shapes as the strongest value play at +1300. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ WNBA first basket model.
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Damien Souness is Chief Experience Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, helping lead sports media brands such as Dimers. He specializes in creating trustworthy and data-driven content for sports fans, with experience working for globally recognized sports and media organizations.
