Fever vs. Mercury prediction: Why Phoenix is favored to win Thursday's WNBA matchup [7/9/2026]
Get Indiana Fever vs Phoenix Mercury predictions for WNBA Thursday.
The Phoenix Mercury and Indiana Fever will lock horns in the WNBA at Mortgage Matchup Center on Thursday, with tipoff at 10:00 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven WNBA model gives the Mercury a slight edge with a 50.1% win probability over the Fever.
The Mercury, with stars like Kahleah Copper, Alyssa Thomas and Valeriane Ayayi, will face off against the Fever, who feature Kelsey Mitchell, Aliyah Boston and Tyasha Harris.
Fever superstar Cailtin Clark will miss the game though, with the USBWNT guard set to be on the sidelines for this one.
This article offers a closer look at Thursday's Fever vs. Mercury matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.
Fever vs. Mercury prediction: Who will win and cover?
Our leading predictive model gives the Mercury a 50.1% chance of defeating the Fever.
According to our model, the Mercury (+1.5) have a 55.7% chance of covering the spread, while the 171.5-point over/under has a 58.7% chance of staying under,.
Fever vs. Mercury odds
We have sourced the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Fever | Mercury |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -1.5 (+100) | +1.5 (-102) |
| Moneyline | -114 | +108 |
| Total | o171.5 (-110) | u171.5 (+102) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Fever vs. Mercury picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Mercury +1.5 | novig-102 |
| Moneyline | Mercury | novig+108 |
| Total | Under 171.5 | novig+102 |
According to our best WNBA bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 171.5 total points.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Fever vs. Mercury player props
WNBA prop bets are a great way to wager on Thursday's Indiana vs. Phoenix game without necessarily betting on the outcome. We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Mortgage Matchup Center.
Kelsey Mitchell is expected to lead the Fever with 23 points, 2 rebounds and 3 assists, while Kahleah Copper is projected to have 19 points, 3 rebounds and 1 assists for the Mercury.
Shifting focus to the first basket market, our projections highlight Kahleah Copper as the most likely player to open the scoring.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.
Fever prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Fever are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelsey Mitchell | 23 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 35 |
| Aliyah Boston | 15 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 38 |
| Tyasha Harris | 10 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 21 |
| S. Cunningham | 7 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 14 |
| M. Billings | 7 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 17 |
Mercury prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Mercury:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kahleah Copper | 19 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 29 |
| Alyssa Thomas | 16 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 44 |
| Valeriane Ayayi | 13 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 27 |
| DeWanna Bonner | 12 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 26 |
| Alexa Held | 8 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
Fever vs. Mercury game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's matchup between the Mercury and Fever at Mortgage Matchup Center is scheduled to start at 10:00 PM ET.
- Who: Indiana Fever vs. Phoenix Mercury
- Date: Thursday, July 9, 2026
- Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT
- Venue: Mortgage Matchup Center
Conclusion
We predict the Mercury, with a 50.1% win probability, will likely beat the Fever in Thursday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Mac Douglass specializes in NFL previews for the NFC South and NFC East, MLB best bets, Formula 1 race previews, and professional tennis insights. Combining predictive simulations and data-driven sports analysis, Mac provides in-depth content to elevate the betting experience for sports fans.
