Jun 17, 2026
WNBA first basket picks and predictions for Wednesday, June 17, 2026
Read Article Aces vs. Mercury prediction: Why Las Vegas is favored to win Wednesday's WNBA matchup [6/17/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Mac Douglass, Senior Editor
Get Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury predictions for WNBA Wednesday.
The Phoenix Mercury and Las Vegas Aces will lock horns in the WNBA at Mortgage Matchup Center on Wednesday, starting at 10:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced WNBA model predicts the Aces as the most likely winner of the Aces vs. Mercury game.
The Mercury, with the likes of Kahleah Copper, Alyssa Thomas and DeWanna Bonner, are set to take on the Aces, featuring A'ja Wilson, Jackie Young and Chelsea Gray.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Wednesday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.
Aces vs. Mercury prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Wednesday's WNBA game between the Aces and Mercury, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives the Aces an 80.1% chance of defeating the Mercury.
According to our model, the Aces (-6.5) have a 58.8% chance of covering the spread, while the 171.5-point over/under has a 57.0% chance of staying under,.
Aces vs. Mercury odds
We have sourced the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Aces | Mercury |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -6.5 (-105) | +6.5 (-106) |
| Moneyline | -278 | +230 |
| Total | o171.5 (-110) | u171.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Aces vs. Mercury picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Aces -6.5 | -105 |
| Moneyline | Aces | -278 |
| Total | Under 171.5 | -110 |
According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Aces -6.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Aces vs. Mercury player props
Betting on Las Vegas vs. Phoenix WNBA player props? We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Mortgage Matchup Center.
A'ja Wilson is expected to lead the Aces with 26 points, 11 rebounds and 4 assists, while Kahleah Copper is projected to have 17 points, 3 rebounds and 1 assists for the Mercury.
Looking at the opening tip, the numbers point to A'ja Wilson striking first with a 15.3% probability.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.
Aces prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Aces are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A'ja Wilson | 26 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 54 |
| Jackie Young | 18 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 40 |
| Chelsea Gray | 12 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 35 |
| Jewell Loyd | 10 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 20 |
| NaLyssa Smith | 10 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 22 |
Mercury prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Mercury:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kahleah Copper | 17 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 27 |
| Alyssa Thomas | 15 | 9 | 8 | 0 | 44 |
| DeWanna Bonner | 10 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 21 |
| M. Akoa-Makani | 9 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 20 |
| Natasha Mack | 8 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 25 |
Aces vs. Mercury game-day updates and essential details
Wednesday's matchup between the Mercury and Aces at Mortgage Matchup Center is scheduled to start at 10:00 PM ET.
- Who: Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury
- Date: Wednesday, June 17, 2026
- Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT
- Venue: Mortgage Matchup Center
Conclusion
We predict the Aces, with an 80.1% win probability, will likely beat the Mercury in Wednesday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Mac Douglass specializes in NFL previews for the NFC South and NFC East, MLB best bets, Formula 1 race previews, and professional tennis insights. Combining predictive simulations and data-driven sports analysis, Mac provides in-depth content to elevate the betting experience for sports fans.
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