Liberty vs. Aces prediction: Las Vegas favored to win Tuesday's WNBA game [6/23/2026]

The Las Vegas Aces will face the New York Liberty in WNBA action at Michelob ULTRA Arena on Tuesday, commencing at 10:00 PM ET.

Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced WNBA model predicts the Aces as the most likely winner of the Liberty vs. Aces game.

The Aces, with stars like A'ja Wilson, Jackie Young and NaLyssa Smith, are set to take on the Liberty, featuring Breanna Stewart, Satou Sabally and Jonquel Jones.

This article offers further insights into Tuesday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.

Liberty vs. Aces prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Tuesday's WNBA game between the Liberty and Aces, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently gives the Aces a 56.5% chance of beating the Liberty.

According to our model, the Liberty (+2.5) have a 52.6% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 177.5 points has a 58.9% chance of staying under,.

Liberty vs. Aces odds

We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Liberty	Aces
Spread	+2.5 (-106)	-2.5 (-108)
Moneyline	+118	-135
Total	o177.5 (-110)	u177.5 (-108)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Liberty vs. Aces picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Liberty +2.5	-106
Moneyline	Aces	-135
Total	Under 177.5	-108

According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 177.5 total points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Liberty vs. Aces player props

WNBA player props are an exciting way to wager on the New York vs. Las Vegas matchup without necessarily betting on the outcome. We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Michelob ULTRA Arena.

Breanna Stewart is expected to lead the Liberty with 19 points, 8 rebounds and 3 assists, while A'ja Wilson is projected to have 23 points, 9 rebounds and 3 assists for the Aces.

Looking at the opening tip, the numbers point to A'ja Wilson striking first with a 15.5% probability.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.

Liberty prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Liberty are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Breanna Stewart	19	8	3	1	39
Satou Sabally	15	6	2	2	30
Jonquel Jones	15	10	3	2	37
Sabrina Ionescu	15	4	4	2	30
Pauline Astier	8	2	3	0	17

Aces prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Aces:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
A'ja Wilson	23	9	3	1	48
Jackie Young	17	5	6	2	37
NaLyssa Smith	11	6	1	0	23
Chelsea Gray	11	4	7	2	32
Jewell Loyd	9	3	1	2	19

Liberty vs. Aces game-day updates and essential details

Tuesday's matchup between the Aces and Liberty at Michelob ULTRA Arena is scheduled to commence at 10:00 PM ET.

• Who: New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces
• Date: Tuesday, June 23, 2026
• Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT
• Venue: Michelob ULTRA Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Aces, with a 56.5% win probability, will likely beat the Liberty in Tuesday's WNBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.